Yesterday, I had a two-hour phone call with a top VC in the crypto world to discuss the current state and problems of the airdrop industry. This morning, I reflected on it again. To be honest, I am very anxious. I will sort it out and share it, hoping for guidance from the experts.

🎢 Cause: The boom of airdrops.

Before the airdrop boom in 2024, from Arb → W → PYTH, it was all due to the previous round of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing, releasing a massive amount of USD liquidity into the market. Venture capitalists, holding excess funds, invested in projects valued at tens or hundreds of billions during that time when if you didn't invest, others would. It didn't matter that these projects had no users for now.

In two or three years, TGE will really be needed. Project parties will find that their hundreds of billions valuation products are truly unused. If this false prosperity bubble bursts, everyone’s career will be doomed!

🔸 The call of the times, the choice of destiny: the airdrop farmer industry has emerged. Its cycle from birth to prosperity perfectly aligns with the queue period for projects to go public after VCs invest money.

🛬 Result: The decline of airdrops.

Starting in 2024, the market no longer accepts VC coins, and the secondary market has no buyers. It is not feasible for projects to rely solely on themselves to pull up prices and sell. Everyone simply dumps their tokens as soon as they launch, and secondary investors and project parties do not take over from each other.

The craze for meme coins is actually a countermeasure from the market against VC coins. Despite knowing it’s a dead end, small investors still rush in.

The counterfeit coin season for VC coins is gone, and for hunters living off airdrops, the profits they receive have sharply declined:

🔹 Shrinkage: Last year, on the day Wormhole W issued tokens, the total market value was 18 billion USD. This year, projects that can reach 1 billion after issuance are already considered super airdrop gains. In just one year, the market value has shrunk tenfold, and airdrops are not only shrinking tenfold but also facing more competitors.

🔹 Being cut: The disheveled project parties actually prioritize their own liquidity for selling, consistently choosing to cut the interests of old users. For example, Zora gives Binance users a 4.5% share, while only 1% to their own chain users.

In such a situation, is there still a need for airdrops? Is there still space for hunters to survive?

Indeed, I see that innovative teams like @SuccinctLabs manually filter and test users. By choosing users through social media in reverse, this may become the norm for fair token distribution in the future. I am glad that some projects have taken the first step.

⛩ Troubles: Airdrop super individuals?

I have always emphasized being a super individual airdrop hunter, striving to become a hexagonal warrior.

Reflecting again today:

The time of airdrop hunters is too precious, every minute needs to be allocated wisely. I spend too little time evaluating projects.

Moreover, the times have changed, and the logic of airdrops has changed. How do we adapt and become better?

The old paths are really no longer viable. To survive, we need to find a more optimized route.

In the past, we could see the studio as a super individual (group).

There are dedicated operators, dedicated project researchers, and dedicated IT problem solvers.

Before we transitioned from super individuals to studios, we had to allocate one-third of our daily time for such work.

==========

However, after the overall airdrop benefits have significantly decreased, income will definitely drop a lot. How should we adjust?

The problems faced by individuals are also the problems faced by studios. Can we create differentiated strategies?

==========

In the past, when the cake was big enough, the industry thrived, and many KOLs even established their own studios at the beginning of the year.

Jokingly referred to as entering the National Army in '49, I wonder how they are doing now?

✅ Reflection

Currently, the popular social airdrops and village-wide Binance trading can only solve basic needs for individuals. You should reflect deeply; this is only slightly better than the expected return rate of working in web2. It's just a job for making money online.

The benefits of airdrops have gone from having no limits to now...

The promise made back then: 'Give me two cycles, and I will definitely cross the class divide.' This dream seems a bit distant now.

To be honest, I feel very sad and powerless after the dream has shattered.

We must face the problem directly and think it through. I will do my best.

Because I want to look up at the road and keep moving forward.

Stepping into a new paradigm of asset issuance in the wild west.

I hope that you and I are still here when the time comes.