In April 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) darkened the economic outlook for the United States with a brutal revision: a projected growth of 1.8%, down from the initially expected 2.7%. This setback, the most marked since the 2008 crisis, is not a simple technical adjustment. It reflects a conjunction of risks – trade wars, persistent inflation, declining consumption – that threatens to redesign the global economic balance. Behind these figures, an unyielding observation: recent political decisions have triggered a shockwave whose aftershocks could last.
On April 2, 2025, the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration acted as a trigger. In less than ten days, the IMF had to rewrite its projections, a process that usually extends over two months.
"A significant negative shock," according to the words of Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist of the institution. Markets reacted immediately: the S&P 500 plunged 9%, while the United States' trading partners, from Europe to Asia, responded with symmetrical measures.
This protectionist escalation creates a vicious circle. Tariffs increase import costs, penalize companies dependent on globalized supply chains, and hinder investment.
The IMF highlights a paradox: these measures, supposedly to protect the domestic industry, could ultimately reduce the productivity of the U.S. manufacturing sector. "A real depreciation of the dollar cannot be ruled out," warns Gourinchas, mentioning a structural weakening.
However, the impact is not limited to the United States. Global growth suffers a downward revision, reaching 2.8% (-0.5 points), revealing a contagious concern.
Emerging countries, already weakened by a historically strong dollar, face a double pressure: a slowdown in U.S. demand and increased costs of borrowing in foreign currency. The IMF warns: this "improvised" trade war could crystallize a new regime of low growth.
In this volatile context, inflation becomes a headache. The IMF raises its forecasts for advanced economies to 2.5% in 2025 (+0.4 points), with a peak of 3% in the United States. The cause: the strength of service prices, the increase in basic goods, and the direct effect of tariffs. "Logistics and raw material cost tensions are underestimated," notes the April report.
Central banks are trapped. If tariffs are perceived as temporary, a rate cut remains possible. But if they persist, the fight against inflation will require a tightening of monetary policy, worsening the slowdown. The IMF now estimates a 40% risk of recession in the United States, up from 25% six months ago. A nightmarish scenario where stagflation and unemployment would advance together.
Irony of fate, the dollar – a traditional refuge in times of turmoil – has begun an unprecedented depreciation since March 2025. A counterintuitive dynamic, linked to doubts about the future competitiveness of the U.S. economy. "Exchange rates react less to trade shocks than to growth expectations," analyzes Gourinchas. For households, this decline in purchasing power adds to a weariness of confidence. In fact, the consumption index, a pillar of the economy since 2020, shows signs of exhaustion.
The IMF's revision is not limited to a statistical adjustment. It marks a shift in era, where unilateral political decisions can shake fragile economic balances. Among trade wars, persistent inflation, and monetary uncertainties, margins for maneuver are reduced.
The coming months will be decisive: will the United States manage to bend the curve without causing a hard landing? The IMF, in any case, bets on prudence – and subtly reminds that today's decisions shape tomorrow's crises.