Why do contracts always get liquidated? #比特币减半完成

Why does contract trading always lead to liquidation? It's not bad luck; it's that you fundamentally don't understand the essence of trading! This article condenses ten years of trading experience into low-risk principles that will completely overturn your understanding of contract trading — liquidation is never the market's fault, but a time bomb you set yourself.

Three Major Truths that Change Perception

Leverage ≠ Risk: Position Size is the Lifeline

Using 1% position size with 100x leverage, the actual risk is only equivalent to 1% of a full spot position. A certain student used 20x leverage to operate ETH, investing only 2% of the capital each time, with three years and zero liquidations. Core formula: Real Risk = Leverage Multiplier × Position Ratio.

Stop Loss ≠ Loss: The Ultimate Insurance for Accounts

During the 2024 March 12 crash, the common feature of 78% of liquidated accounts: losses exceeded 5% but still did not set stop losses. Professional traders' iron rule: single trade losses must not exceed 2% of capital, equivalent to setting a "circuit fuse" for the account.

Rolling Positions ≠ All In: The Correct Way to Compound

Laddering Position Model: First position 10% for trial, use 10% of profits to increase position. With 50,000 capital, first position 5,000 (10x leverage), increase 500 for every 10% profit. When BTC rises from 75,000 to 82,500, total position only expands by 10%, but safety margin increases by 30%.

Institution-Level Risk Control Model

Dynamic Position Formula

Total Position ≤ (Capital × 2%) / (Stop Loss Margin × Leverage Multiplier)

Example: 50,000 capital, 2% stop loss, 10x leverage, maximum position calculated as = 50000×0.02/(0.02×10)=5,000

Three-Stage Profit Taking Method

① Close 1/3 at 20% profit ② Close another 1/3 at 50% profit ③ Move stop loss on remaining position (exit if below the 5-day line)

In the 2024 halving trend, this strategy increased 50,000 capital to one million in two trends, with a return rate exceeding 1900%.

Hedging Insurance Mechanism

Purchase Put options with 1% of capital while holding positions, which can hedge 80% of extreme risks. During the April 2024 black swan event, this strategy successfully saved 23% of the account's net value.

Deadly Trap Data Empirical Evidence

Holding a position for 4 hours: liquidation probability increases to 92%

High-frequency trading: averaging 500 operations per month results in a 24% capital loss.

Four, The Mathematical Expression of Trading Essence

Expected Profit = (Win Rate × Average Profit) - (Loss Rate × Average Loss)

When setting 2% stop loss and 20% take profit, only a 34% win rate is needed to achieve positive returns. Professional traders achieve an annualized return of over 400% through strict stop losses (average loss of 1.5%) and trend capturing (average profit of 15%).