$BTC

🚀Bullish vs. Bearish Scenarios

Current Price: $93,229 (as of April 24, 2025)   

🔍 Key Levels to Watch

- Strong Support:

  - $91,000 to $91,700 (Short term holder cost basis & immediate support).

  - $87,000–$88,000 (Weekly EMA 50 Golden Line).

- Major Resistance:

  - $94,000 to $96,300 (Breakout target for bullish continuation).

  - $106,000 (Next supply zone if bullish momentum holds).

📈 Bullish Scenario: Rally to $106K and Beyond

Catalysts:

1. Institutional Demand:

   - Bitcoin ETFs recorded $936M inflows on April 22, the highest since January, signaling renewed institutional confidence .  

   - MicroStrategy added 6,556 BTC ($555M) at $84,785/BTC, reinforcing long term accumulation .  

2. Technical Breakout:

   - BTC broke its 45-day downtrend and surpassed the 78.6% Fibonacci level ($91,780), targeting $106K next .  

   - A weekly close above $94,000 could trigger a short squeeze (retail shorts at $92K–$93K).

3. Macro Tailwinds:

   - Weak USD (DXY at 2022 lows) and gold’s ATH ($3,500/oz) boost BTC’s safe haven appeal.

Targets:

- Short-term: $96,300 → $106,000 .  

- Long-term: $120,000–$200,000 (if institutional inflows persist) .  

📉 Bearish Scenario: Correction to $87K or Lower

Risks:

1. Rejection at Resistance:

   - BTC faces rejection at $94,000–$96,300 (bullish exhaustion zone) .  

   - RSI (68) nears overbought territory, signaling potential pullback .  

2. Derivatives Overheating:

   - Open interest hit $68.3B (2-month high), increasing liquidation risks.

   - Whales placed $74.5M in short bets at $92,469–$92,664

3. Macro Uncertainty:

   - Geopolitical tensions (US-China trade war) and Fed policy shifts could spark volatility .  

   - Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to "Neutral" from "Greed" post rejection .  

Targets:

- Short-term: $91,000 → $87,000 (EMA 50 support) .  

- Worst-case: $74,000–$70,000 (if $87K breaks) .