When Bitcoin soared to $94,000, some were deploying bullish options while others were sweeping up in the spot market—while you are still hesitating if it's a top, others are already positioning for $100,000!
Bitcoin's price is standing at the threshold of a historical high. On one side, spot buying on exchanges like Binance continues to pour in, while on the other, bullish bets in the options market are becoming increasingly dense. At the same time, a deeper division is quietly unfolding on-chain: short-term holders are selling, while long-term holders are buying aggressively. The market appears lively but is brewing a structural turning point.
Long-term holders have quietly increased their holdings by 635,000 BTC: what have they seen?
On-chain analysis platform Glassnode shows that since January 2024, long-term holders (holding for more than 155 days) have cumulatively increased their holdings by 635,340 BTC, raising their total holdings to 13.76 million BTC. The significance of this data cannot be underestimated—these 'diamond hands' are traditionally seen as the true supporters of a bull market, and their continuous buying often indicates that the market has not truly peaked.
Meanwhile, short-term holders have done the exact opposite, reducing their holdings by over 460,000 BTC since the beginning of this year, bringing their holdings down to about 3.5 million BTC. Does this 'new lambs offloading, old players bottom-fishing' scenario mean the market is about to reverse?
Derivatives Market: Put options are being sold off wildly; who is betting on the continuation of the bull market?
In the options market, traders are using a strategy called 'cash-secured put options'—they sell put options in exchange for premiums while expressing a willingness to take on shares when the market pulls back. This strategy is only widely used when traders have enough confidence in the future market. In other words, they are not afraid of a downturn; they even hope that a downturn will bring buying opportunities.
At the same time, the open positions of high strike call options (such as $95,000, $100,000, $135,000) have surged, with the notional open interest for $100,000 strike options already exceeding $1.6 billion, indicating enormous bullish expectations.
Deribit's DVOL index has also fallen, dropping from 63 in early April to the current 48, indicating that the market expects future volatility to decrease—this is precisely a typical characteristic of a mature bull market.
According to Volmex data, the cumulative notional open interest in the BTC derivatives market has reached $9 billion, with a significant amount concentrated on institutional trading platforms like Coinbase and CME. In other words, the real 'smart money' is ready.
Spot Market: Binance sets the pace, whales are sweeping up without stopping.
If the options market is a bet on the future, the spot market is an immediate manifestation of belief.
CryptoQuant data shows that the buy/sell ratio on Binance has been rising continuously, with a 30-day increase of 18.9% and a 7-day increase of 6.2%. This means that more and more traders are decisively buying at market prices rather than waiting for a pullback with limit orders.
It is noteworthy that despite Bitcoin's price soaring, the perpetual contract funding rate on Binance remains in negative territory. This indicates that many shorts still have not closed their positions or do not believe the market can hold. If this lack of confidence continues, it may trigger a large-scale short squeeze when the market rises further.
In other words, the bears in the market are borrowing money to short, while the market keeps rising; this 'reverse effort' is precisely the fuel for accelerating the rise.
The cycle theory is shaking: Is the bull market here, or is it a structural trap?
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju previously believed that Bitcoin was nearing its top this round. However, in a recent statement, he acknowledged: 'The price is now 10% higher than when I issued the bearish signal; if BTC sets a new high before Q4 this year, I will abandon the original cycle theory.'
Behind this attitude shift is a new reality emerging in the crypto market—the traditional four-year halving cycle is no longer applicable. Especially now, with ETFs and institutional funds continuously entering, the price mechanism and capital flow of BTC have been redefined.
In fact, from the continuous accumulation of ETFs like BlackRock's IBIT to whales adding tens of thousands of BTC weekly, the entire market is moving towards an 'institution-led bull market.' Short-term speculators are exiting, and long-term investors are returning; this structural change may be the true logic driving BTC close to $100,000.
How should investors view this spectacle? The key lies in the interaction of data, sentiment, and strategy.
In the face of such a complex situation, relying solely on emotional judgment is no longer sufficient. What you need is an AI research assistant like Mlion.ai specifically designed for the crypto market.
Mlion.ai can help you:
Identify structural changes in holding behavior through on-chain data, such as long/short holding ratios and whale address behaviors;
Use AI algorithms to analyze options market data and infer the intentions of major funds;
Track the buy/sell ratios and funding rate anomalies of mainstream exchanges like Binance to warn of potential short-term market turning points;
Automatically generate technical diagrams, chip distribution, and trend strength analysis for BTC and other mainstream cryptocurrencies;
Quickly obtain sentiment scores from news and tweets across multiple platforms to identify significant signal events.
The market never lacks data; what it lacks is the ability to read direction from the data. Mlion.ai is exactly such an 'intelligent trading co-pilot,' helping you integrate every detail into a decision-making basis.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin is standing at a brand new starting point; as the price approaches $100,000, the market is also nearing a new structural turning point. The old cycle theory is collapsing, and new participants, tools, and strategies are constructing the framework for the next decade of crypto investment.
Are you ready?
Disclaimer: The above content is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, and investments should be cautious.