Date: 2025-04-24
Instrument: TRUMP/USDC
Timeframe: 1H
Style: Swing Trading
Author: @JAKEnCHAD
1. Market Context & Macro Situation
General Market Situation: Memecoins gaining renewed speculative interest; high retail activity post-pump.
Volatility: Elevated. Recent extreme candle wick to 16.08 suggests aggressive FOMO and profit-taking.
Dominant Sentiment: Mixed; short-term bullish exhaustion with emerging bearish pressure.
2. Trend & Market Structure
Short-/Mid-Term Trend: Short-term downtrend after vertical pump; mid-term still bullish if support holds.
Chart Structure:
Parabolic move followed by correction.
Lower highs forming, with potential bear flag structure developing.
Behavior vs. Moving Averages (MA):
Currently trading below MA7 and MA21.
Still above MA50 (10.38) and MA100 (9.32), suggesting mid-term support.
3. Key Technical Levels
Support:
$10.38 – MA50 and previous breakout zone.
$9.30–9.70 – Area of consolidation pre-breakout; coincides with MA100.
Resistance:
$12.25 – MA21 and previous support now flipped.
$13.09 – Last failed retest zone before further decline.
4. Technical Indicators
RSI (6/14): RSI(6): 37.67 | RSI(14): 52.09 – Momentum cooling; bearish divergence confirmed.
MACD: Bearish crossover, histogram declining – suggests fading momentum.
Moving Averages: Price under short-term MAs (7/21), signaling caution for late longs.
5. Volume & Market Behavior
Volume Behavior: Huge spike during pump, now significantly lower.
Volume Supporting Current Move?: No – declining volume on pullback suggests lack of strong sellers.
Anomalies: Single candle wick to $16.08 implies stop-hunting or bot manipulation.
6. Potential Setups & Scenarios
Base Scenario (~60% probability):
Continuation of correction toward support at $10.38–9.70, then possible bounce.
Target 1: $12.25
Target 2: $13.09
Alternative Scenario (~30% probability):
Breakdown below $9.30 – confirms deeper correction to MA200 around $8.60.
Low Probability Scenario (~10% probability):
Immediate reclaim of $12.25 with volume – potential re-test of $14–16 highs.
7. Entry & Position Management
Position: Watching for long setup
Entry: On bullish confirmation near $10.00–10.40 (e.g., hammer candle or bullish divergence).
Stop Loss: Below $9.20 (invalidates current support zone).
Take Profit: TP1: $12.25 | TP2: $13.09
Risk Management: 1–2% capital per trade; consider moving SL to BE at TP1.
8. Summary & Decision
Strong impulse move has cooled down; currently in a corrective phase. Watching for support hold around $10–9.70 for potential bounce. No immediate long entry unless reversal signals appear on higher volume. Patience needed; high-risk memecoin environment – adapt
