The competition between luck and technology in cryptocurrency investment is fundamentally a game of cognitive dimensions. True 'technology' is not K-line analysis, but rather three underlying capabilities:

1. Project deconstruction ability: understanding the technical roadmap in the white paper and assessing the team's execution capability (e.g., judging whether the public chain TPS can be realized);

2. Airdrop capture ability: accurately tracking testnet node establishment and early community contributions (e.g., Arbitrum airdrop screening logic);

3. Cycle control ability: identifying market sentiment indicators at bull and bear turning points (e.g., the timing for layout when the fear and greed index is < 20). As for 'luck', it is often a manifestation of probability after in-depth research — when you can lock in 3 potential targets out of 100 early projects, the so-called 'luck' is merely the result of technical screening. In this highly volatile market, believing in luck will reduce you to a gambler, while understanding the essence of technology allows 'fortune lies in the sky' to become a natural outcome.