Judgment on future market trends! How should retail investors formulate trading strategies?
(Relatively low probability) If Bitcoin starts a large-scale upward trend, the highest point may not be very high (the accumulation of chips, adjustment time, and similar power-building actions may still be insufficient, and the US stock market is currently in a state of transition that does not support large-scale risk-on expansion)
(Relatively high probability) If Bitcoin attempts to enter a right-side consolidation for a second test, but does not drop below the 83,000 starting platform, the subsequent momentum may reach much higher and further. In early May, with tariffs being adjusted repeatedly and the US stock earnings season lowering forward EPS, the US stock market may decline, presenting a good opportunity for a pullback buy, but the premise is that Bitcoin follows the decline of the US stock market (possibly around 85,000);
Gradually entering June to July, with Trump beginning to release the second phase of 'deregulation + domestic tax cuts', US dollar risk assets may strengthen along a trend line in the third quarter, which could significantly boost Bitcoin's main upward trend.
Policy-wise: On May 3, further details of the national-level BTC reserve legislation will be announced, and there may be more favorable state-level purchasing structures from June to August: short-term arbitrage is mainly concentrated around 95,000 to 98,000, and to soar, more time may still be needed to work through these high-level trapped positions. To be honest, the macro environment is in an unprecedented chaos.
Under Trump's maneuvering, the market may have 100 directions in a day, which is truly headache-inducing. Analyzing by following Trump will only lead to continuous losses; I think it is better to return to some fundamental rhythms in thought, which will make it easier to clarify ideas.
