Hello brothers, today is April 23rd, and I believe everyone has had a bountiful harvest, which is worth celebrating.
Regardless of whether you have seen the public market analysis released on the 18th or the private content from the 14th, you should have captured this wave of market movement. The title of our previous article was: The logic has not changed, it is just unwilling to admit mistakes easily and patiently waiting for the passionate May.
First, let's review the analysis points we gave; the rebound range was between 1,750 and 2,000. At that time, the market experienced a spike upwards, quickly falling back after luring in bullish positions, breaking previous low points. If someone had told you at the 1550 level that ETH would return to 1750 or even 2000, would you think that person was crazy? However, the market did return to the range we predicted of 1,750-2,000, rather than continuing to decline as most people thought.
In the private content from the 14th, it was emphasized to observe the layout of the main force, with the first target at 87,500. When it breaks 87,500, the external market is experiencing intense fluctuations, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 at one point down over 3%. From this perspective, the main force is pushing prices against a significant cost, indicating their determination, with higher target positions anticipated. Given this situation, we decisively set our sights on a higher range, specifically the dense trading area of 97,000-98,000.
Observing the general trading habits of retail investors, many frequently open positions at high levels, with their USDT positions liquidating and their coin-based contracts also continuously liquidating. After suffering heavy losses, the main force suddenly initiates a wave of upward movement. This method has proven effective time and again, as it repeatedly wears down retail investors through oscillating sideways movements until they capitulate and go flat, at which point the market accelerates upward. This process of repeated oscillation causes many retail investors to continue losing until their funds are depleted.
Today a member sent me a WeChat message saying that the captain is glad to have joined your group, otherwise, he would have been left like a vegetable by the main force over the past three months. This is actually a true statement; if you follow the news and play along, you will really be played to death, and you might already be in debt.
The group of people who are currently suffering the most are the investors who shorted at high positions. It is expected that the market may oscillate in the current range for a period of time, providing a buffer period for both bulls and bears to adjust their layouts, while also observing the market's FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment.
Currently, the market's FOMO sentiment has begun to manifest, and the probability of breaking through 97,000 is relatively high. The main force is pushing prices up with real money against the trend, possibly to further test the pressure around 97,000, while continuing to torment the bears and spark enthusiasm among bulls, even forcing those who missed out to chase in at high prices due to anxiety.
Many who missed out are currently waiting for a pullback, hoping for BTC to drop to around 88,000, but the main force may not be willing to provide such opportunities. The main force is more likely to continue to rise slowly with small bullish candles, gradually pushing up the entry costs for retail investors, and once retail investors rush in, they will implement a significant pullback to optimize funding costs and positions.
In addition, there have been rumors of a brief suspension of withdrawals and asset zeroing at the Gate exchange recently, triggering a wave of panic short selling. However, the exchange has now resumed normal operations, and the logic behind these short positions has already collapsed. If shorts continue to hold out hope, the main force may further push prices up to 97,000-98,000, triggering stop-loss orders.
Later today, there will be relevant speeches from the Federal Reserve that may further benefit the capital markets. Although the short-term market may continue to rally, it is not advisable to rush into buying at the current position. Remember: wealth does not come in a hurry, avoid passive trading. Passive trading refers to blindly adding positions to average down costs after losses; this behavior is especially dangerous in the contract market.
The correct trading philosophy should be to formulate a plan in advance, adhere to stop-loss discipline, and avoid falling into a passive situation. Our operational strategy is usually laid out several weeks or even a month or two in advance, and we prepare accordingly based on likely market trends, thus rarely making mistakes in major trend judgments.
Considering the current external macro factors, the probability of the market breaking through 100,000 in the short term is low, so it is recommended that investors appropriately reduce their positions to take profits and prepare for possible adjustment risks.
