The short-term market sentiment fluctuations and risk aversion trading frenzy triggered by Trump's tariff policy have subsided, and market volatility is gradually decreasing. On April 22, Trump publicly stated that the tariffs on U.S. imports from China are too high and is expected to significantly lower the tax rate, showing a softening of his iconic tariff policy stance.
The current CME interest rate futures market shows that investors expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates in June 2025, with an anticipated three rate cuts throughout the year, each possibly 25 basis points (i.e., 0.25%). This expectation reflects the market's latest judgment on the U.S. economic outlook, Trump administration policies, and the global macro environment. If the rate cuts occur as expected, it will inject new liquidity into the market, potentially having a significant impact on risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and the stock market.
Market expectations for the rate cut pace:
June: The first rate cut of 25 basis points, with a probability of about 70%-80% (based on CME data).
September or November: The second rate cut of 25 basis points.
December: The third rate cut of 25 basis points.
The market expects the Federal Reserve to adopt a gradual rate cut rather than aggressive measures to balance economic growth and inflation.
[Daytime Analysis Section]
Bitcoin's short-term price has risen as expected, and it has currently broken through the key resistance level of 92000, and the price has returned to an upward trend.
Those who held positions at lower levels, whether in spot or low-leverage, if you chose to increase your position after stabilizing at 88000, then your overall gains are very considerable now.
Previous content: Bitcoin breaks through: The next step will face the most critical resistance level, and we expect to see 200,000 this year.
What we need to do now is either take profits partially or choose to exit, and pay attention to the 88000 level again. If the market pulls back and does not break this level, it will still bring us opportunities. At the same time, if it pulls back to 88000, the market will be more technically sound, as the market behaves this way; it rises and falls, advancing three steps and retreating one step, which is common knowledge.
Bitcoin's current price is 93500, which is the end of the upward trend demonstration chart we discussed earlier; theoretically, it will form resistance. Whether it can break through this position in one go and aim for the 100,000 mark, or choose to pull back, will only be beneficial for the subsequent market.
First, we need to clarify that the market has completed the bottom formation, so looking ahead, 100,000 is just a preliminary narrative target.
From the current market situation, if Bitcoin pulls back, it will bring many opportunities for altcoins.
Currently, for players who entered the market from 74000 and increased positions at 82000, 88000, etc., they can choose to reduce some holdings.
Next, we just need to wait for the market to pull back and arrange for the altcoin rebound.
[Altcoin Spot Suggestions]
On-chain data: Since December 2024, ETH has experienced a five-month decline, with the number of profitable addresses dropping to a bear market low, remaining oversold. Against the backdrop of an overall recovery in the cryptocurrency market, ETH is currently entering a critical support-resistance conversion zone.
ETH is currently overall still weak, so what we need to focus on now is whether the 1860 level can be effectively broken to end the downtrend.
If anyone wants to trade relatively stable altcoins, you can pay attention to DOGE.
After several months of decline, Dogecoin (DOGE) is now testing the resistance level, which has been the key resistance limiting price upward since February. This breakout is crucial as it is the watershed between bullish and bearish sentiment.
As trading volume continues to expand, DOGE breaks through this level, showing that bulls are regaining control of the market, and the downward momentum may have faded. The significant increase in trading volume at the time of the breakout further validates the strength of this trend. Currently, Dogecoin has rebounded from around 0.16, testing the next key resistance area close to 0.18, and it is very likely to welcome a second wave of trend upward.
