Overnight, BTC rose to the range of 94-95k, which is a narrow fluctuation of 2000-4000 points. The current position is already within the range of trapped positions from earlier, which has trapped a large amount of capital. This trapped area cannot be broken through easily unless there is significant positive news to stimulate it, or Bitcoin undergoes sufficient adjustment to build energy for a potential breakout.
In the short term, Bitcoin has not broken below the upward trend line, with the lower bound of the range at 92.5k being crucial. Three possible scenarios for Bitcoin's future movements:
(1) If it does not break below the lower bound of 92.5k, it will build an upward center, looking up to 104k.
(2) Once the lower bound of the range at 92.5k is broken, the downward momentum will be strong, and a dip to the previous low of 73k cannot be ruled out.
(3) A false breakdown for Bitcoin, meaning a short-term drop followed by a sudden rebound.
Bitcoin is set to reach a new high, testing liquidity above 95700+. The upper limit should be around 96200. Expect a rollercoaster this week, first dropping to 92000, then going to 96, and then crashing to 85.
Currently, the market trend is somewhat similar to around August 13, 2021. Back then, after six daily dips, it was first suppressed by the MA230 daily line, and after breaking through, it stabilized above the MA140 line. Subsequently, it completed a correction between the MA120 and MA250 lines, gradually stabilizing and reaching new highs.
If this follows the same pattern, Peipei believes there is a high probability of the third scenario: first reaching 96k, then dropping to 92 or 85 could be a favorable short-term movement.
Is ETH about to take off again?
On-chain data indicates a trend of accumulation of ETH among retail investors, whales, and super whales.
(1) Whale accumulation
Whales and super whales have increased their holdings of ETH, particularly addresses holding 10K-100K ETH—which have net added 149K ETH in the past week. After a dominant distribution in previous weeks, these whales have returned to apply buying pressure, trying to push ETH's price closer to $2000.
(2) Ethereum ETF data
Yesterday saw a net inflow of about $64 million, which is rare for three consecutive working days of net inflow.
Ethereum has already regained the losses from yesterday, showing a structural reversal, with potential upward consolidation. The upper bound of the channel is between 1830-1850, and breaking through 1850 is necessary to continue looking at 1957, with a target of 2000.
Upbit is about to list SIGN, with a short-term surge of nearly 70%!
The strongest buying power still comes from the South Korean market, with every new coin seeing an increase of over 50%. Projects listed on Binance's spot market generally get listed on South Korean exchanges, and it's said that South Korean exchanges have a green channel for projects listed on Binance's spot market.
By checking my Weibo, one can basically predict a high likelihood of entering the South Korean market; this morning, Peipei predicted that SIGN would enter the South Korean market, and I made a 70% profit on this wave of listings, earning quite a bit.
The next gamble is whether SIGN will become the first target to practice under the new Binance contract regulations, with shorting fees immediately reaching the maximum level. According to regulations, if it reaches the maximum, it will immediately enter a one-hour settlement state, making it quite interesting.
During this period, there is an opportunity; if the market cap exceeds 100 million, it is definitely overvalued. This is a very good opportunity to short, and when the funding rate turns negative and its absolute value increases, it will be time to close the position. This opportunity is a sure win.
