Bitcoin breaks 90,000 dollars, is the bull market really here?
The major coin strongly broke through the 84.5k sideways zone, standing at 90,000 in one go, and market sentiment instantly turned from cold to hot. Some say this is a key signal breaking a three-month downward trend; macro enthusiasts pulled out the global M2 liquidity chart, firmly believing that the trend synchronizes perfectly with currency circulation, and even if there are short-term deviations, it can be 'calibrated'. The cyclical faction continues to hold on to the halving faith, while the technical faction follows the Wyckoff model, viewing the current pullback as the final test.
But the question is, why has this time hit the mark when previous dips in 2023 did not prove critical?
Ultimately, all predictions are probability games.
Looking from 90,000 to 100,000 or even 200,000, what is your estimated probability of an increase? How do you assess the risk of a decline? If you assess the probability of success at 80% with odds of 2 to 1, the optimal position given by the Kelly formula is only about 70%.
Investing is not gambling; the key lies in rationality and marginal control. Those who truly make money in the long term are not gamblers, but probability players.
