📈 Market Trend: The battle between bulls and bears intensifies, with clear differentiation between BTC and ETH.
Musk vs Treasury Secretary 'White House Wrestling': Last Thursday, Musk and Treasury Secretary Basant had a heated argument over IRS personnel appointments, with both even 'chest to chest, cursing wildly', leaving even Trump stunned. This conflict exposes the contradictions at the policy execution level, causing market concerns that crypto regulation direction may be affected. BTC Chips Reluctant to Sell: On-chain data shows that new BTC buyers have been active in April, but the recent profit-taking has decreased, indicating that 'old investors' are starting to hold their coins, waiting for higher prices. From a technical perspective, BTC oscillates around $93,000, with enhanced MACD divergence signals; if it breaks the $91,000 support, a faster correction may occur. ETH believers are increasing their positions against the trend: Although no new funds are entering ETH, 'die-hard fans' have been buying more as the price drops since the end of March, continuously bottom fishing on-chain. However, the technical aspect is constrained by the $1,800 resistance, making it difficult to break through in the short term.
Explosive Opinion: CryptoQuant CEO boldly stated that if BTC breaks its previous high (over $100,000) before Q4, the traditional 'four-year cycle theory' will be completely invalid! This means the bull market might be shorter and more intense, or enter a 'perpetual rise' mode.
🔥 Recent Hot Topic: TRUMP Coin 'Presidential Dinner' Sparks Speculation Frenzy.
Top 25 Whale VIP Dinner at the White House: The 25 individuals holding the most TRUMP coins will have dinner with Trump on May 22, and the next day they can stroll around the White House! The rules are simple and brutal—more coins held, higher the ranking, with the current minimum threshold only at $54,000. As soon as the news broke, TRUMP coin instantly surged by 75%, with whales frantically buying high and selling low; some made $730,000 in 10 minutes, while others missed out on $4.5 million and regretted it. Trump's 'Crypto Marketing Technique': From NFTs to meme coins, Trump deeply understands the tactics of 'scarce experience + celebrity effect'. This time, he directly priced social rights, which, despite being criticized as 'open corruption', earned a lot of attention.
💎 Alpha Intelligence: Institutions are crazily buying, but the ecosystem hides dangers.
Binance delisted 4 tokens: Spot trading for ALPACA, PDA, VIB, and WING has been cut, and projects with depleted liquidity are advised to be avoided. Japan's Microstrategy increases BTC holdings: Metaplanet bought another 145 BTC, bringing its total to 5,000 BTC (about $460 million). This company emulates Microstrategy's strategy, using government bonds to buy BTC to hedge against yen depreciation. Sovereign Funds 'Secretly Crossing the River': Coinbase revealed that sovereign wealth funds are massively buying BTC, viewing it as 'digital gold' to hedge against fiat currency risks. Countries like El Salvador and Bhutan have already established national Bitcoin reserves. SOL Ecosystem 'Cash Ability' Erupts: DeFi Development Corp increased its SOL holdings by $9.9 million, learning from Microstrategy to hoard coins; SOL Strategies raised $500 million in convertible bonds (the largest in Solana's history), specifically buying SOL! The ecosystem's TVL surged by $860 million in a single day, but contract holdings plummeted by 82%, beware of major players pulling up prices to sell.
The Bitcoin network is congested again: Due to the impact of Alkanes inscriptions, transaction fees surged by 12 times! After the Lightning Network went live, 'traffic jams' have become the norm, miners are laughing, and users are crying. SEC New Chair's Debut: On April 25, at the crypto roundtable, new chair Paul Atkins will speak. He has previously had a relatively mild attitude towards crypto, and the market anticipates signals of regulatory easing.
🤔 Deep Reflection: Has the logic of the bull market changed?
Institutions vs Retail Investors: On one side are sovereign funds and listed companies hoarding coins, while on the other side retail investors are retreating through ETFs. This phenomenon of 'institutions taking over retail investors' may make BTC increasingly resemble gold—lower volatility but more concentrated control. Warning of Cycle Theory Failure: If ETF funds continue to pour in, BTC may break the previous high ahead of schedule, breaking the historical pattern of 'post-halving bull markets'. But this also means that corrections could be more brutal, as the traditional cycle buffer is gone. The 'Political Play' of Meme Coins: TRUMP coin monetizes presidential credibility, creating a new paradigm for meme coins. However, the policy risk is extremely high; if Trump loses power or turns against it, the price could drop to zero overnight.
Operational Suggestions:
BTC: Light short positions near $93,000, stop loss at $95,000, target $88,000; if it breaks $95,000 with volume, chase long to $100,000. ETH: Short position at $1,800 resistance, stop loss at $1,820, target $1,700; believers can wait for a drop to $1,700 to buy the dip. SOL: Short at $152, stop loss at $155, target $140; although there are many ecological benefits, beware of major players using news to sell.
