Short-term target has been reached! Do not chase higher prices! Plan your trades again! Key focus for the crypto market in the coming weeks!

Key events to watch in the crypto market over the next few weeks.

The recent trend of the crypto market is dominated by external factors, especially macroeconomic conditions, policies, and U.S. stock performance. The following are key events in the coming weeks that could impact the market, analyzed in three parts:

I. Macroeconomic data (focus on the U.S.)

1. March PCE data (April 30)

- The inflation indicator most valued by the Federal Reserve; if core PCE exceeds expectations, it may strengthen rate hike expectations, negatively impacting the market; conversely, it could alleviate pressure.

2. April non-farm employment data (May 2)

- Reflects the initial impact of Trump's tariff policy. Strong employment may boost the dollar, while weak data could exacerbate market volatility. Current expectations are conservative.

3. FOMC meeting (May 7)

- Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, but Powell's statements are key. The market is focused on his interpretation of inflation and the economy, especially the policy signals following the trade war.

4. April CPI data (May 13)

- The trade war may lead to price increases for goods, but panic hoarding could distort data in the short term, requiring a comprehensive assessment with other indicators.

5. April retail sales data (May 15)

- Changes in consumer behavior may affect data; if contradicted by employment and CPI, it could trigger market divergence.

Note: Economic data from countries such as China and Japan should also be moderately monitored, but the market is more focused on U.S. policies and data guiding the Federal Reserve's decisions.

II. U.S. stock earnings season (impact on risk sentiment)

- Tech giants like Tesla, Google, Microsoft, and Apple will successively release Q1 financial reports (April 22 - May 1).

- If performance or outlook is below expectations, it may drag down U.S. stocks and transmit to the crypto market, especially pay attention to companies' statements on tariff costs.

III. Policy and regulatory dynamics

1. New SEC chair takes office

- Paul Atkins, nominated by Trump, is considered more friendly towards cryptocurrencies, potentially promoting a more lenient regulatory environment.

2. SEC crypto roundtable meeting

- April 25 (custody issues), May 12 (assets on-chain), June 6 (DeFi), the discussion topics may indicate future regulatory focus.

3. Stablecoin legislation progress

- The U.S. plans to complete legislation before August, aimed at reinforcing dollar hegemony; if implemented, it may benefit compliant stablecoins and related ecosystems.

Summary:

In the short term, market volatility may be driven by the above events: economic data influences Federal Reserve policy expectations, earnings reports affect risk appetite, and regulatory trends determine capital flow. In the long term, the institutional trend of Bitcoin (such as ETFs, national reserves) may gradually push up prices, but the decline in retail participation may lead to reduced volatility.

Logic chain: Events → Capital flow → Price changes → Market sentiment → Capital redistribution. Investors need to be cautious of data contradictions or sudden policy shocks, but long-term holders can ignore the noise and focus on fundamental changes.

BTC

Yesterday it was already advised not to chase higher prices at this position! The risk-reward ratio is not appropriate! Prices have been resisted at 93500-95000, currently two scenarios:

1. Price spikes to capture liquidity above 95000 before falling back for adjustments!

2. Price H1 breaks below 89900, announcing the end of this rebound, prompting a pullback!

Regardless of the scenario, wait below 84800-83900! Short-term support at 88300-87800!

ETH

Precise strike at 1830! Currently, if H1 breaks below 1760, a pullback will begin! If not broken, wait for liquidity hunting above 1845 before initiating a pullback! Wait below 1590-1537, with short-term support at 1710-1680!

SOL

Watch for H1 breaking below 149, which will initiate a pullback; wait for buying opportunities at 138-134 below!

The information and data involved in the content are sourced from publicly available materials, striving for accuracy and reliability, but do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information. The content does not constitute any investment advice; investing based on it is at your own risk!