After Trump softened his stance on tariffs and Powell's position. On Wednesday, the Nasdaq index rose 3.5% during the session, the S&P 500 index rose 2.5%, and the Dow Jones index rose 2.1%. Gold fell 2.4% to $3,300 per ounce. Tesla's financial report stated that as of March 31, Tesla currently holds 11,509 Bitcoin on its balance sheet.
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Musk posted: "I am not 'leaving', it’s just that DOGE has been established, and I am allocating less time to it now." On Wednesday, Musk stated that the work in the efficiency department (DOGE) is very important. He will return to Tesla in May, and the time allocated to the DOGE department will be greatly reduced. Cointelegraph reported that the European Central Bank (ECB) expressed concerns about the aggressive policies supporting the cryptocurrency industry in the U.S., warning that the surge in dollar-pegged stablecoins could undermine the stability of the European financial system. Trump stated that the cryptocurrency industry urgently needs clear regulatory policies. SEC Chief Paul Atkins is the best candidate to ensure regulatory certainty for cryptocurrencies. On April 22, Musk shared an image of economist Milton Friedman with BTC laser eyes, captioning it "The best economist in history." BTC's market cap surpassed Alphabet (Google) at $1.86 trillion, ranking fifth among global mainstream assets. Matrixport stated that as market concerns over Trump's tariff comments ease, the likelihood of surpassing $95,000 is increasing, with BTC currently showing a certain upward trend.
The Financial Times reported: Brandon Lutnick, son of U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and chairman of brokerage Cantor Fitzgerald, is collaborating with SoftBank Group, Tether, and Bitfine - x to establish a BTC fund, planning to raise $3 billion in BTC through the newly established 21 Capital. Tether intends to invest $1.5 billion, while SoftBank Group and Bitfine - x plan to invest $900 million and $600 million, respectively. Bloomberg reported that Trump signed an executive order in early March this year proposing the establishment of a U.S. BTC reserve and strategic reserves for other tokens, and requested the U.S. Treasury Secretary to submit an assessment report on the legal and investment feasibility of the plan within 60 days. With less than two weeks until the deadline, more details on the BTC reserve will be disclosed, and the market’s anticipation of this matter may be one of the important catalysts for the recent rebound in crypto assets. Additionally, any comments questioning the independence of the Federal Reserve have also had a positive spillover effect on BTC. TradingView data: BTC's market dominance (BTC.D) rose to 64.67%, a new high since February 2021, indicating the quietness of the altcoin market and possibly signaling an impending bottom reversal. According to previous historical data, when BTC's market dominance surged above 60% last November, altcoins began a small bull market. BTC's market dominance reached over 70% in both 2019 and 2021, followed by significant upward trends.
On April 22, U.S. spot BTC ETF inflows were $912.7 million, and spot ETH ETF inflows were $38.8 million. On April 21, BTC spot ETF inflows were $381.3 million. On April 23, Tether issued $1 billion in stablecoins. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that the BTC market has recognized that if U.S. bond yields rise, the Federal Reserve will ultimately be forced to print money. Real Vision's chief analyst Jamie Coutts stated that the growing money supply in the U.S. could push BTC above $132,000 by the end of the year. Bitwise research director André Dragosch stated that it appears BTC is rising due to the continued weakness of the dollar, as the dollar index has just hit its lowest level since March 2022. Bitget Research chief analyst Ryan Lee stated that the weakening dollar may enhance BTC's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Matrixport: BTC has broken through its previous downward channel and is currently outperforming the U.S. stock market and U.S. bonds, demonstrating its value as an asset to hedge against dollar exposure, particularly notable for U.S. investors. Trump seems to be backing down. Regarding the Federal Reserve: Trump stated he has no intention of firing Federal Reserve chief Powell; regarding tariffs: Trump stated that tariffs will significantly decrease but will not go to zero. The White House stated that 18 trade agreement proposals have been drafted, and this week the trade team will meet with 34 countries.
On Wednesday, the Nasdaq index rose 3.5% during the session, the S&P 500 index rose 2.5%, and the Dow Jones index rose 2.1%. Gold fell 2.4% to $3,300 per ounce; BTC rose to $94,000, with an increase of 6.3%; ETH rose to $1,800, with an increase of 13%. JPMorgan predicts that gold will average $3,675 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2025 and is expected to break $4,000 per ounce by the second quarter of 2026. ECB President Lagarde stated that tariffs have a negative impact on economic growth, and inflation is expected to reach the ECB's 2% target by 2025, with downward risks to European economic growth. The market expects the ECB's deposit rate to drop to around 1.65% by December. Trump stated: "I understand interest rates better than Powell and hope to see Powell be more proactive about lowering rates; now is a perfect time; I hope Powell can lower rates early or on time, rather than late." Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos noted: If Trump's tariffs lead to a weakened U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve does not quickly cut rates, he will blame the Federal Reserve.
Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon: The growth of the U.S. economy has slowed down, and changes in tariffs have altered the market's consensus on future growth. The market expects the Federal Reserve to gradually cut interest rates this year. Citibank: A series of data is expected to make Federal Reserve members more dovish before June, with risks leaning towards faster and/or larger rate cuts. By the end of 2025, rates are expected to drop from the current range of 4.25% - 4.5% to 3% to 3.25% (five rate cuts). Trump has shifted from irrationality to a more rational stance, easing concerns over tariffs and Powell's position, leading to a rise in U.S. stock indices and the cryptocurrency market. If the tariff narrative concludes, the impending rate cuts from the Federal Reserve will provide a stronger boost amidst the pressures of a weak economy. The next narrative of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts is gradually emerging, as rate cuts have historically been a driving factor for market movements. Discussions about market trends can be easily challenged; however, considering rate cuts, the driving factors for market movements still exist. At the end of last year, it was known that the current round of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle had not yet ended, with the rate cut beginning only at the end of last year (BTC had once risen to $100,000). After some fluctuations, the market expects the Federal Reserve to continue this round of rate cuts around mid-year (most likely in June). Based on this, analysts still give high expectations for U.S. stock indices, gold, and BTC in the second half of the year. Hope for a smooth recovery in the subsequent market.
