Did Bitcoin Just Fake Out the Entire Market?
The crypto community is buzzing as Bitcoin reclaims $90k, but seasoned traders know this could be a classic bull trap. Let’s dissect the charts and market psychology to separate hope from reality.
Weekly Chart: The $90k Mirage
Bitcoin’s weekly close above $90k marks a critical technical victory, but the rally lacks conviction. The current candle shows a 12% surge, yet volume remains 18% below the April average—a red flag for sustainability. Historical data reveals that similar breakouts in 2021 and 2023 led to 22–30% retracements within two weeks.
Key levels to watch:
Support: $88k (previous resistance turned support)
Resistance: $94.5k (2025 YTD high)
The Liquidation Engine
This rally was fueled by $1.2B in short liquidations, clearing out over-leveraged bears. However, open interest (OI) has spiked to $34B, signaling fresh longs entering at peak prices. When OI rises alongside price without proportional volume, it often precedes sharp corrections.
The Path Forward
Bull Case: A daily close above $92k could trigger algorithmic buying, propelling BTC toward $100k. Institutional inflows via Bitcoin ETFs have risen 8% this week, suggesting whales are accumulating.
Bear Case: Failure to hold $88k may confirm a lower high on the weekly chart, inviting a retest of $80k.
Pro Tip: Wait for a confirmed breakout above $92k with volume >$25B/day before chasing. Scalpers can play the $88k–$92k range, but set tight stops.
