$BTC Bullish scenario (priority recommendation)
• Entry point: Current price (93,320.83) is close to the potential bottom of Wave A (0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at 93,500 USDT), RSI(6) is close to oversold, MACD downward momentum is weakening. It is recommended to attempt a short-term long position near 93,320 USDT and wait for Wave B rebound. If the price falls below 90,504.90 USDT (Bollinger Band midline) and continues to drop, re-evaluation is necessary.
• Target level:
• First target: 94,000 USDT (0.382 Fibonacci retracement level).
• Second target: 94,500 USDT (0.618 Fibonacci retracement level).
• Third target: 94,696.05 USDT (previous high).
• Stop-loss level: Set below 90,504.90 USDT, such as 90,300 USDT, to prevent further decline of Wave A.
• Reason: Elliott Wave indicates that Wave A may have ended, and Wave B rebound is about to begin; RSI(6) is close to oversold and MACD momentum weakening supports rebound expectations.
Bearish scenario (alternative strategy)
• Entry point: If the price rebounds to around 94,000 USDT or 94,500 USDT, and RSI rises above 70, with the MACD histogram turning negative, consider shorting for a short-term trade and wait for Wave C drop.
• Target level:
• First target: 91,500 USDT (0.618 Fibonacci retracement level).
• Second target: 90,504.90 USDT (Bollinger Band midline).
• Third target: 88,140.67 USDT (Bollinger Band lower band).
• Stop-loss level: Set above 94,696.05 USDT, such as 94,800 USDT, to prevent false breakouts.
• Reason: After Wave B rebound, it may enter Wave C downtrend, waiting for confirmation of the rebound.
Risk management
• Position control: It is recommended to control the position at 2%-5% of total funds to reduce volatility risk.
• Take profit and stop loss: Strictly implement take profit and stop loss strategies to avoid emotional trading.
• Monitor dynamics: Closely monitor the changes in RSI and MACD. If RSI rises above 70 or the MACD histogram turns negative, be cautious of the risk of Wave C drop.
