币圈王百亿
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Market Analysis: What Should We Do After Bitcoin Breaks Through $95,000 at $76,000?
1. Tiered Profit Taking and Risk Control
1. Pyramid-style profit taking: Divide holdings into 3 tiers (30%/30%/40%), taking profit at $95,000/$100,000/$105,000, transferring 50% of profit to USDT or other stablecoins upon triggering each tier to lock in gains.
2. MVRV Danger Threshold Operations: If the indicator >3.5 (historical high-risk range), reduce holdings by 2% for every 1% increase, gradually lowering risk exposure.
2. Leverage Reduction and Hedging
1. Contract Defensive Mode: Compress leverage to within 2x, maintain margin ratio raised to 200%, to avoid forced liquidation under extreme volatility.
2. Options Hedging Downside: Buy $85,000 January put options (cost about 3-5% of holdings) to insure spot positions, hedging against downside risk.
3. On-chain Data Alerts
1. Monitor Miner Movements: If miner wallets have outflows exceeding 8,000 BTC in a single day, be cautious of major sell-offs, immediately initiate reduction or profit-taking plans.
2. Exchange Flow Signals: When top platforms like Binance see net inflows >25,000 BTC in a single day, short-term peaks may occur, requiring precautions against market sentiment reversals.
4. Cycle and Capital Allocation
1. Halving Cycle Experience: Currently 45 days post-halving, historical maximum drawdown during the same period reached 28%, reserve 30% of funds to handle volatility, avoiding full exposure pressure.
2. Institutional Premium Warning: When CME futures premium >15%, be alert to institutional sell-offs, increasing the probability of mid-term peaks, gradually shift to conservative strategies.
5. Ecological Rotation and Hedging
1. Ecological Project Allocation: Shift 20% of positions to Bitcoin ecosystem projects like STX and RUNE, capturing L2 narrative dividends, diversifying single-coin risks.
2. Greed Index Dollar-Cost Averaging: When the Fear and Greed Index >90 (extreme greed), reduce positions by 5% weekly into U.S. Treasury ETFs (like TLT), balancing portfolio volatility.
Advanced Tip: Current implied volatility (IV) of options has reached 75%, and the market has priced in optimistic expectations; tail risk can be hedged through straddle options combinations. Historical data shows that if RSI weekly >85, there’s an 82% probability of a drawdown exceeding 15% within 6 weeks, suggesting prioritizing the construction of anti-drawdown portfolios rather than chasing gains. Pay attention to the 7% risk-free yield opportunity in U.S. Treasuries, treating short-term bubbles rationally.
1. Tiered Profit Taking and Risk Control
1. Pyramid-style profit taking: Divide holdings into 3 tiers (30%/30%/40%), taking profit at $95,000/$100,000/$105,000, transferring 50% of profit to USDT or other stablecoins upon triggering each tier to lock in gains.
2. MVRV Danger Threshold Operations: If the indicator >3.5 (historical high-risk range), reduce holdings by 2% for every 1% increase, gradually lowering risk exposure.
2. Leverage Reduction and Hedging
1. Contract Defensive Mode: Compress leverage to within 2x, maintain margin ratio raised to 200%, to avoid forced liquidation under extreme volatility.
2. Options Hedging Downside: Buy $85,000 January put options (cost about 3-5% of holdings) to insure spot positions, hedging against downside risk.
3. On-chain Data Alerts
1. Monitor Miner Movements: If miner wallets have outflows exceeding 8,000 BTC in a single day, be cautious of major sell-offs, immediately initiate reduction or profit-taking plans.
2. Exchange Flow Signals: When top platforms like Binance see net inflows >25,000 BTC in a single day, short-term peaks may occur, requiring precautions against market sentiment reversals.
4. Cycle and Capital Allocation
1. Halving Cycle Experience: Currently 45 days post-halving, historical maximum drawdown during the same period reached 28%, reserve 30% of funds to handle volatility, avoiding full exposure pressure.
2. Institutional Premium Warning: When CME futures premium >15%, be alert to institutional sell-offs, increasing the probability of mid-term peaks, gradually shift to conservative strategies.
5. Ecological Rotation and Hedging
1. Ecological Project Allocation: Shift 20% of positions to Bitcoin ecosystem projects like STX and RUNE, capturing L2 narrative dividends, diversifying single-coin risks.
2. Greed Index Dollar-Cost Averaging: When the Fear and Greed Index >90 (extreme greed), reduce positions by 5% weekly into U.S. Treasury ETFs (like TLT), balancing portfolio volatility.
Advanced Tip: Current implied volatility (IV) of options has reached 75%, and the market has priced in optimistic expectations; tail risk can be hedged through straddle options combinations. Historical data shows that if RSI weekly >85, there’s an 82% probability of a drawdown exceeding 15% within 6 weeks, suggesting prioritizing the construction of anti-drawdown portfolios rather than chasing gains. Pay attention to the 7% risk-free yield opportunity in U.S. Treasuries, treating short-term bubbles rationally.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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