History is always remarkably similar
1. March-April 2018: Tariff threats and Chinese countermeasures
1. The U.S. initiates '301 Investigation' and tariff memorandum
· March 22, 2018: Trump signed a memorandum citing 'China's unfair technology transfer and intellectual property practices' as a reason to invoke Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, announcing plans to impose a 25% tariff on $50 billion of Chinese goods.
· April 4: The U.S. released a specific list involving 1,333 Chinese goods, covering high-tech fields such as aerospace and information technology.
· Chinese countermeasures: On the same day, China announced a 25% tariff on 106 items across 14 categories of goods originating from the U.S., including soybeans, automobiles, and chemicals, to be implemented in two batches (the first batch of $34 billion worth of goods effective July 6).
2. May 2018: Brief ceasefire and breakdown of consensus
1. Negotiations and Joint Statement
· May 3-4: The Vice Premier and U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin led a delegation for negotiations, agreeing to 'resolve economic and trade differences through cooperation,' with China promising to increase imports of U.S. agricultural products and energy, and the U.S. temporarily suspending tariffs.
· May 19: China and the U.S. issued a joint statement, clearly stating 'to stop imposing tariffs on each other,' with the U.S. promising to send a delegation to discuss specific procurement details.
2. U.S. unilaterally breaches the agreement
· May 29: The White House announced the continuation of plans to impose tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods, stating that 'China has not made substantial concessions.'
· June 15: The U.S. officially announced a 25% tariff on the first batch of $34 billion of Chinese goods (effective July 6), with China simultaneously implementing corresponding countermeasures.
3. July 2018: Trade war escalates comprehensively
1. The U.S. expands the scope of tariffs
· July 10: The U.S. released a list of proposed 10% tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, covering 6,031 items including food and textiles, threatening to raise the rate to 25%.
· Chinese response: On August 3, China announced a 5%-10% tariff on $60 billion of U.S. goods (limited by the total import amount from the U.S., the scale of countermeasures was only 1/3 of the U.S. measures).
Based on the candlestick chart, the next move will either be three consecutive gains, either 567 or 678!