As Bitcoin edges closer to the psychological milestone of $100,000, market optimism is back in full swing. Yet, a deeper dive into options data reveals that while bulls are gaining ground, several critical resistance factors could stall the rally.
The Bullish Momentum Is Building
Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin’s price has climbed steadily, recently breaching the $90,000 mark. This bullish price action aligns with growing open interest in call options, as seen in Glassnode’s latest metrics. Call open interest (green line) has been trending upward since early April, signaling increased demand for bullish positions.
At the same time, the overall options open interest (orange chart) has rebounded strongly after a sharp drop in late March, indicating renewed trader confidence. This rebound reflects both fresh capital inflows and reallocation of existing portfolios toward upside bets.
Options Ratio Signals Bullish Sentiment
The put/call ratio (gray line in the first chart) has been drifting lower since the end of March. A declining ratio typically points to a stronger appetite for call options versus puts—another classic sign of bullish sentiment. The ratio hovered around 0.5–0.6 for most of April, suggesting that more traders are betting on further upside rather than preparing for downside protection.
What Could Stand in the Way?
Despite the bullish trend, there are notable hurdles:
1. Call Overcrowding Risks
With call open interest surging, there's a risk of overcrowded trades. If too many traders are leaning on the same bullish narrative, even a small correction can trigger cascading liquidations.
2. Macro Uncertainty
Inflation data, Fed policy shifts, and geopolitical developments still pose headline risks. A surprise rate hike or economic downturn could dent risk appetite across the board, including in crypto.
3. Resistance at Key Technical Levels
Bitcoin has historically faced strong resistance near round-number milestones. The $100K level is not just psychological—it’s a technical battleground. Any failure to hold momentum could result in a sharp pullback.
4. Put Interest Is Still Rising
While lower than calls, the red line (put open interest) is also climbing. This implies that some traders are hedging or preparing for potential downside, which could reflect underlying caution.
Visual Breakdown
Chart 1: Options Put/Call Open Interest (Glassnode)
Green Line: Call Open Interest – steady rise since early April.
Red Line: Put Open Interest – gradually increasing, but still lower than calls.
Gray Line: Put/Call Ratio – declined to 0.5–0.6 range, signaling bullish sentiment.
Black Line: BTC Price – consistent climb toward $90K+ levels.
Chart 2: BTC Options Open Interest (Glassnode)
Orange Area: Total Options Open Interest bounced back sharply after March dip.
Black Line: BTC Price rising in tandem with options interest.
Chart Summary: Key Takeaways
Momentum: Bullish strength supported by increasing calls and overall options activity.
Sentiment: Put/Call ratio favors bulls but not extreme still room for caution.
Resistance: $100K remains a key psychological and technical test.
Watchlist: Rising puts and macroeconomic data could quickly flip sentiment.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s recent performance has reignited dreams of a six-figure valuation. The data suggests that bulls are taking control, with rising call interest and recovering open interest supporting the narrative. However, traders should remain vigilant. As always in crypto, sentiment can turn quickly—and the road to $100K could be a volatile one.
Stay informed. Stay strategic. And always trade smart.
