The wind didn't stop in the early morning, but the market suddenly 'warmed up'. From U.S. stocks to the crypto space, it seems like someone secretly pressed the 'reverse switch' in the night. At first glance, it appears that the market suddenly exploded, but a closer look reveals the news—Trump quietly released three rounds of 'soft talk'.
The first shot came from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, who stated that the trade war with China 'cannot continue'; the second shot was Trump admitting that a 145% tariff 'is a bit excessive' and claiming it 'will be significantly reduced'; the third shot was him directly extending an 'olive branch' to the Federal Reserve—although he is dissatisfied with the pace of rate cuts, he will not move Powell from his position.
In plain terms, it's not that anyone has softened, but rather that the temperature of the policy has finally cooled down. Especially the last 'surprise': Trump stated that he would announce a peace plan for Russia and Ukraine within three days. The three major pressures that have weighed on the market over the past year are gradually loosening piece by piece.
Why did the market suddenly surge? It's not that someone suddenly became optimistic about the economy, but rather that risks are beginning to loosen.
In the past few days, the crypto space hasn't lacked money, but rather confidence, direction, and no one dared to hold positions overnight. Policies change daily, and everyone fears waking up to a changed situation. However, last night, continuous signals of easing finally came, allowing funds to start flowing back.
For risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, this is the most critical turning point—not because they suddenly became stronger, but because the enemy took a step back.
It's like playing Go; when the opponent stops attacking fiercely, you can immediately free your hands to layout a new strategy. For the crypto space, this kind of 'emotional reversal' is more important than any technical indicator.
How should we view this? The wind direction has changed, but it is far from the time to close our eyes and jump in.
Trump's shift is based on campaign and political considerations; a short-term 'softening' does not mean a long-term trend is set. He may talk about cooperation today and call for sanctions tomorrow. Let's not forget, this person has always relied on 'changing faces' to make a living.
But this precisely indicates that opportunities exist within such instability. The most terrifying market is not one that is volatile, but one that is completely inelastic. And now, the crypto market has regained its 'imagination'.
Note that this is the first step taken after the high-pressure policies have been lifted, and it is also the prelude to a long-term bull market. The real certainty in the crypto space has never come from national policies, but from the global capital flows that are 'no longer suppressed'.
In summary: it's not that a bull market has arrived, but rather that 'a bull market can be imagined now'.
The key to watch next is whether the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy will truly shift, whether the Russia-Ukraine situation will genuinely ease, and whether Trump will continue to show goodwill. If these factors can continue to release positive expectations, then the rebound in the crypto market will not only not stop but may accelerate.
