The Bitcoin, which was wobbling at 85,000 the day before yesterday, turned around not only to stabilize within the pressure zone of this bullish round but also headed straight for 95,000. In the trend over the past three days, the bullish sentiment for Bitcoin has been released vigorously, marking the first time since early January this year that Bitcoin has had four consecutive daily gains.
Macro-wise, Trump stated yesterday that he would significantly reduce tariffs on China. In fact, since the reciprocal tariffs exceeded 100, US-China trade has been almost completely paused. We know how much pressure we can bear, but given the hollowing out of American industries, it is hard to imagine how they will withstand this. Indeed, admitting defeat is the way to go, and if tactics are useful, why need a strategy?
On the data front, Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of 913 million USD yesterday, the largest since mid-January this year, with off-market sentiment greatly improving. Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net inflow of 38 million USD, temporarily ending the continuous outflow since early February.
The gold index broke through the historical high of 3,500 points yesterday and temporarily retraced during the day. The US stock market, after a prolonged bottom adjustment, began to reverse with the de-escalation of tariff confrontations. The new US Treasury Secretary is committed to building a compliant and sustainable crypto market and has a high expectation for the robust development of the global economy. In summary, the risk of a market collapse due to policy risks in the short term is very low.
Regarding market opportunities and trends, after this round of market decline to the bottom, Uncle, like the vast majority of partners, presents a relatively pessimistic sentiment towards the market. However, with Bitcoin's second bottom probing forming a right shoulder and a third daily divergence, the technical perspective has initially changed. Since last Friday, the plan for 200,000 USD has been launched, and Bitcoin has risen by 11.52% since then, with personal position returns at 13.54%, temporarily leading Bitcoin.
Will the market reverse from here? Even though the current trend shows considerable gains, Uncle believes it is still too early for a reversal in liquidity base control. The current trend can be seen as a release of bullish sentiment after continuous overselling. To be more direct, what needed to burst has already burst, and there is simply no momentum left to continue dumping.
Can we wait for a confirmed reversal before getting in? Logically, yes, but in practice, in this massive casino, if one cannot act ahead of time, it means that when exiting later, the bullish retreat will lead to greater losses than anyone else. Uncle has always understood that watching and trading the market is based on the most straightforward fundamental data to arrange the distribution of chips for a stage. The bull and bear markets bring only emotional changes in pleasure and have no essential relationship with our personal gains and losses.
So, in summary, Uncle believes that the market has little opportunity left for everyone to get in. When the macro market is fully liquidated, we need to consider when to withdraw at the high point. Moving against the crowd, charging ahead, by the time everyone reacts, the market will have peaked.
BTC: Bitcoin has surged from breaking through 88,000 to 92,000 without any obstacles. The high point of this rebound is expected to be in the range of 96,000 to 98,000. Breaking through this range will allow it to reach the previous high again; otherwise, a brief consolidation will be needed. From a short-term operational perspective, continued volume can allow for staggered selling. The current market share of Bitcoin is at a four-year high, and historically, after reaching new highs, there has been a concentrated rebound of altcoins, which is no exception this time. Additionally, if the Bitcoin position is of a long-term hold nature, it's better to just leave it be. The expected retracement adjustment before the new high should not exceed a 15% range, which will also coincide with negative policy impacts. It is still early, and as long as the previous low does not break, there is basically no opportunity; the overall trend has returned to a positive state.
ETH: Ethereum is linked to Bitcoin and is currently performing slightly stronger, having risen nearly 20% from the bottom of 1,500 to 1,800 points. The Ethereum upgrade in May has been confirmed, and V God recently proposed the largest upgrade plan in ten years for Ethereum, aiming to increase mainnet speed by 100% and reduce fees by a thousand times, directly competing with high-speed efficient public chains like SOL and SUI. If this battle succeeds, Ethereum will surely return as a king; if it fails, it will become a tragedy for countless middle-class individuals.
SOL: Previously prompted multiple times near 130 points, target high point 180 points, currently exceeding 150 points, overall volatility is considered okay. The globally leading crypto company GSR is conducting a public equity private placement on Upexi and has committed to developing a financial strategy for Solana. Simply put, it aims to create a micro-strategy on the Solana chain. If successful, ETH will face a huge challenge, and SOL has the chance to break through the previous high.
SUI: The first token on the public strategy list to exceed a 30% increase, the daily trend has broken through, with the expected low point support above 2.6 points and high points linked to the overall trend.
Altcoin section: The last two major layouts have yielded good results, with nearly 20 coins currently above cost, temporarily outperforming Bitcoin. Other discussions can take place in the comments section.
Fear and Greed Index Daily 72.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot assets!#加密市场反弹 #中美贸易关系
