Cryptocurrencies may soon experience a surge, but this depends on whether investors remain in the market, mainly based on the following analyses:
Macroeconomic Environment and Liquidity: Global anxiety over tariffs and interest rate hikes has eased, the stock market is recovering, and the market expects the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates and restart quantitative easing, such as Germany announcing a printing of 1 trillion euros, with China potentially following suit, leading to a significant influx of capital into the market. History shows this is beneficial for the development of high-risk assets like Bitcoin.
Transformation of Bitcoin's Nature: Bitcoin has evolved from a mere speculative asset to a legitimate asset class, with most countries recognizing its legality. Governments are participating in mining, institutions are holding large amounts, and it is decoupled from traditional finance, no longer merely fluctuating with the stock market.
Price Momentum is Accumulating: Institutional accumulation takes time; they do not chase or panic sell like retail investors, but slowly accumulate during price declines and sideways movements. Therefore, despite news of ETF inflows and large whale purchases, the process is gradual.
Bitcoin's Resilience: Bitcoin has maintained relative stability amidst global turmoil, which is a bullish signal. If the market stabilizes for several months, Bitcoin may break its historical high.
Market Cycle Patterns: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and most retail investors find it difficult to endure tough phases and exit, while those who persist are patiently accumulating. This is often a phase where the market creates winners. Each major cycle exhibits a pattern of institutional accumulation, retail exit, price surge, and subsequent rush of participation, and this process is currently being repeated.