1. Recent price fluctuation characteristics

  1. Short-term correction trend
    The lowest price has pulled back about 68.51% from the historical high of $5.368 set in January 2025, with the current price at $2.93, still higher than the low of $1.99 in October 2024, indicating that the market is in a high-level adjustment phase. The daily level shows a narrowing fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the psychological resistance at $3.0 in the short term.

  2. Trading volume and liquidity
    Recent trading volume has significantly decreased compared to the peak in November 2024 (daily increase over 10%), reflecting a cautious tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The current support level can be referred to at $2.8 (breakout point in March 2025), and if it breaks down, it may further test the $2.5 range.

2. Key influencing factor analysis

  1. Token unlocking pressure
    In October 2024, over 64 million SUI tokens were unlocked (worth about $106 million), and some selling pressure may continue into the current period. However, ecological development (such as the income growth of the DeFi protocol Scallop) has partially offset the impact of the supply increase.

  2. Ecological progress and technological upgrades

    • After the upgrade of the Sui mainnet, it supports high-frequency trading scenarios. In March 2025, ecological tokens DEEP, CETUS, and others rose together, showing capital recognition of the underlying technology.

    • The security enhancement of the Move language and parallel processing capabilities attract more DApp developers to settle in, positively impacting the network's long-term value.

3. Future market outlook

  1. Short term (1-3 months)
    If it stabilizes above the $2.9 support, it is expected to test the previous high of $3.3, but it needs to break through the dense trading area of $3.1-3.2.2. If the macro market weakens, it may test the $2.5 support.

  2. Medium to long term (6-12 months)
    If ecological TVL continues to grow (such as the Walrus storage protocol driving SUI consumption), combined with improved market liquidity after the halving cycle, the target can be seen in the range of $4.0-5.0.

Investment advice

  • Aggressive strategy: Open a light long position at the current price, stop loss at $2.7, target at $3.3.

  • Conservative strategy: Wait for a breakout above $3.0 to enter on the right side, or accumulate positions in batches when it retraces to $2.5.

  • Risk warning: Pay attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and cryptocurrency regulatory dynamics, and avoid high-leverage operations.