#特朗普施压鲍威尔
Ethereum has been consolidating at the bottom for two weeks, with the rise primarily driven by macro factors. Trump's easing on tariffs, as mentioned in previous articles, is part of a strategy aimed at accelerating Fed rate cuts.

Interpretation of policy signals: Trump's recent "easing" on tariffs (such as delaying tariff increases on some Chinese goods) is seen by the market as a signal to alleviate trade friction, which may lower inflation expectations. Combined with his recent statements (such as criticizing the Fed for raising rates and calling for rate cuts), the market interprets this as a continuation of political pressure on the Fed.
Transmission to the crypto market: If easing trade friction leads to reduced inflation pressure, the Fed's room for rate cuts will increase. Historical data shows that rising rate cut expectations often drive risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) up, due to improved expectations for dollar liquidity.

Trump's "pressure for rate cuts" is a long-term strategy.

- Political motivation: Trump's frequent calls for rate cuts are essentially paving the way for the election.

- Economic aspect: Low interest rates can stimulate the stock market and employment, creating an appearance of "prosperity" and increasing the probability of re-election.

- Debt pressure: High US government debt means that rate cuts can alleviate interest expenditure pressure.

- Challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve: Although the Fed is theoretically independent, history shows (such as the Fed turning dovish after Trump's pressure in 2019) that political pressure can indirectly affect the pace of policy.

Rebound logic after Ethereum's consolidation

- Mainly driven by macro factors: This rise in ETH is more driven by external liquidity expectations rather than on-chain fundamentals (such as Gas fees, active addresses, etc., which have shown no significant breakthroughs recently). A similar situation was observed in October 2023 (expectations of the Fed turning dovish).

- Technical alignment: Two weeks of consolidation have digested part of the selling pressure, with macro positives triggering short covering.

Future risks and observation points

- The Fed's real response: If June CPI data exceeds expectations, the Fed may delay rate cuts, leading to market corrections.

- Repetitiveness of Trump's policies: His statements often show "hawk-dove switching"; caution is needed regarding potential changes in tariff issues.

- ETH's own catalysts: Potential ETF approval progress in August, EIP-7702 upgrade, etc. If outcomes fall short of expectations, it may exacerbate volatility.

The current rise in ETH is a result of a combination of "macro narrative + technical recovery". The Trump factor has temporarily amplified rate cut expectations, but sustainability needs to be observed based on actual policy implementation and whether the ETH ecosystem can sustain capital inflows. In terms of trading strategy, it is recommended:

- Short-term: Focus on speeches from Fed officials and US economic data, utilizing volatility trading.

- Medium to long term: If a rate cut cycle begins, ETH, as a strong Beta asset, may outperform the market, but caution is needed for black swan events (such as sudden regulatory changes).#加密市场反弹 #降息预期