$BTC Current data overview

• Price: 93,379.9 USDT, up 6.03% in 24 hours.

• 24-hour data:

• Highest price: 94,142.5 USDT

• Lowest price: 87,945.0 USDT

Bearish scenario (preferred suggestion)

• Entry point: The current price (93,379.9 USDT) is close to the potential top of the B wave (0.618 Fibonacci level 93,500 USDT), and RSI is severely overbought. It is recommended to attempt short-term short positions near 93,380 USDT. If the price breaks above 94,142.5 USDT (24-hour high) and continues to rise, a reassessment is needed.

• Target position:

• First target: 89,763.3 USDT (Bollinger Band middle line).

• Second target: 87,305.2 USDT (previous wave 4 low point).

• Third target: 85,000 USDT (0.618 Fibonacci extension level).

• Stop loss position: Set above 94,694.7 USDT (Bollinger Band upper line), such as 94,800 USDT, to prevent false breakouts.

• Reason: Elliott Wave suggests that the B wave may end, and the C wave drop is about to start; RSI is severely overbought (85.3) and MACD momentum weakening further supports the pullback expectation.

Bullish scenario (alternative strategy)

• Entry point: If the price drops to around 89,763.3 USDT (Bollinger Band middle line) or 87,305.2 USDT (previous low point), and RSI falls back to the 50-60 range, consider building a long position in batches, waiting for a new round of rise after the end of the C wave.

• Target position: First target 93,380 USDT (current high point), second target 95,000 USDT (psychological barrier).

• Stop loss position: Set below 87,305.2 USDT, such as 87,000 USDT, to prevent further declines.

• Reason: If the C wave drop is complete, it may initiate a new round of 5-wave rise, but a pullback confirmation is needed.

Risk management

• Position control: It is recommended to control the position within 2%-5% of the total funds to reduce volatility risk.

• Take profit and stop loss: Strictly execute take profit and stop loss strategies to avoid emotional trading.

• Focus dynamics: Closely monitor the changes in RSI and MACD. If RSI falls below 70 or MACD shows a death cross, the possibility of a pullback will further increase.

5. Other influencing factors

• Market sentiment: The price is rising rapidly and trading volume is increasing, indicating a relatively optimistic market sentiment, but the severely overbought RSI suggests that a short-term consolidation phase may enter.

• External factors: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and may be influenced by macroeconomic events, regulatory policies, or large holder operations, so it is necessary to pay attention to relevant news.