[In-depth Interpretation] Trump's Policy 'U-Turn' Ignites Global Markets: Key Signals and Investment Logic Explained in One Article
One, Three Major Concessions Release Heavy Signals
During the early hours in Beijing, the Trump team released three policy adjustment messages consecutively, directly triggering a violent rebound in US stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets:
1. Trade War Eases (00:00)
• Treasury Secretary Yellen Clearly States: "The Trade War with China Is Unsustainable"
• Key Phrase: "Expect to See Substantial Easing Measures in the Coming Weeks"
• Market Interpretation: The Trade Barriers Lasting for Six Years May Begin to Be Dismantled
2. Significant Tariff Reductions (01:00)
• Trump's Exact Words: "A 145% Punitive Tariff Is Clearly Too High"
• Latest Commitment: "The Final Tax Rate May Drop to Obama Era Levels (About 3-5%)"
• Special Supplement: "The Chinese Delegation Will Be Very Satisfied with the Adjustment Results"
3. The Federal Reserve Personnel Turmoil Settles (05:00)
• Clearly States Retaining Powell's Position as Federal Reserve Chairman
• Compromise Statement: "Although Unsatisfied with the Speed of Rate Cuts, Respect the Independence of the Central Bank"
• Implicit Information: High Probability of Maintaining a Gradual Rate Cut Path Until 2025
Two, Super Egg: Countdown to Russia-Ukraine Peace Plan
• Sudden Announcement: Conflict Resolution Plan to be Announced Within 72 Hours
• Historical Comparison: Comparable to Kissinger's 'October Surprise' in Middle East Mediation in 1973
• Market Impact: If realized, it will lead to:
- International Oil Prices Drop by 5-8%
- Military Stocks Under Pressure
- European Stock Markets Welcome Repair Market
Three, New Investment Logic Under Policy Uncertainty
1. Market Sentiment Reversal Trilogy
Panic Selling → Policy Correction → Valuation Repair, currently transitioning from the second to the third phase
2. Asset Allocation Barometer
• Key Focus: Oversold Chinese Stocks, Bitcoin, Tech Growth Stocks
• Beware of Volatility: Safe-Haven Assets Like Gold May Correct
3. New Features of Trump's 'Deal-Making' Mode
• Policy Fluctuation Magnitude: Reduced by 40% Compared to the First Term
• Turning Point Warning Signal: Steepening US Treasury Yield Curve + Bitcoin Leading Upward
• Window Period Pattern: Major Adjustments Often Occur Late at Night to Early Morning Beijing Time
BTC
The 92800 level has also arrived as expected, short-term bottom-buying positions have taken partial profits! Those who can benefit from this rebirth plan will definitely be partners who expand the cycle, at least at the daily level! Next, observe whether the 93500-95000 level forms a small-level M15 structure conversion to decide whether to hold positions downward! (Right-side thinking) For pullback positions, pay attention to buying opportunities around 84800-83900! Short-term H1 support at 88300-87800!
ETH
Yesterday stabilized at 1570, still looking at 1750-1830! As expected! Firmly execute the trading plan! Currently, this position above 1845 is a liquidity position, waiting for price performance after predation, enter the downward position after a small-level structure conversion appears on M15! Short-term H1 support at 1705-1680! The lower range of 1590-1537 is a solid buying opportunity!
SOL
Yesterday saw a pullback to 136-133, looking upward to hunt 147.5, follow up for more gains! Currently, short-term support is around 143, securely watch 138-134 for breaks; the daily target will be 167-180! Stop-loss if broken!
The information and data involved in the content are sourced from publicly available materials, striving for accuracy and reliability, but do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information. The content does not constitute any investment advice; invest at your own risk!
