1. The core boundary of the bull and bear trend: support level at 141.
1. Hold above 141: a signal for the continuation of the upward trend.
- Technical meaning: 141 is an important support level for SOL's recent pullback, corresponding to the lower bound of the 4-hour rising channel, and is also the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level (calculated from previous lows to recent highs). If it stabilizes at this position during the night (for example, a bullish candlestick rebound occurs, or volume recovers after a decrease), and does not effectively break (closing price stabilizing above 141), it is regarded as bullish control, and the upward trend has not yet ended.
- Upward target:
- First resistance level: 145.5 (short-term moving average resistance + previous small high), after breaking through, it may test 147.5 (gap pressure area at the daily level);
- Mid-term target: 152.8 (strong resistance at the daily level, corresponding to the upper edge of the previous dense trading area), if it breaks out with volume, a new round of upward momentum may begin.
2. Breaking below 141: 1-hour level pullback begins.
- Weakening trend signal: if the price breaks below 141 and does not recover within 30 minutes, the technical analysis triggers a 'breakout pullback' at the 1-hour level, pay attention to the support below:
- First support: 138.4 (1-hour Bollinger Band lower bound + Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level), if it breaks, it may drop to 135.6 (whole number level + previous low point support);
- Ultimate support: 132.7 (60-day moving average support at the daily level), if there is still no rebound at this position, be cautious of the market switching to a mid-term adjustment.
- Market sentiment impact: a breakout may trigger short-term contract long positions to stop-loss, accelerating the price drop, pay attention to funding rates and position changes.
2. Operational strategies under different trends.
1. Bullish (not breaking below 141) strategy.
- Entry timing: when a stabilization signal appears near 141 (such as a doji or bullish engulfing pattern), you can try to enter long positions.
- Target and stop-loss:
- Target: sequentially look at 145.5, 147.5, 152.8, reduce positions or move stop-loss for each breakout of a resistance level;
- Stop-loss: exit if it breaks below 140 (or 5% below 141) to control risk.
2. Bearish (breaking below 141) strategy.
- Entry timing: effectively breaking below 141 and rebounding is blocked at that position (for instance, if it rebounds to around 141 and encounters a bearish candlestick), try shorting with a small position.
- Target and stop-loss:
- Target: first look at 138.4, if it breaks, look at 135.6, 132.7;
- Stop-loss: stabilize above 142 (or 5% above 141) to avoid false breakout traps.
3. Key points for risk control.
- Avoid chasing highs and lows near 141, wait for clear breakout or stabilization signals;
- Control position within 10% of total funds, and single stop-loss not exceeding 2%;
- From 2 to 4 AM is a period of high volatility, focus on the breakout market during this time.
3. Market summary and key reminders.
1. Core conclusions.
- Short-term key: 141 is the 'trend switch' for SOL's nighttime market - holding steady continues the upward rhythm, breaking leads to a correction and bottoming out.
- Level linkage: a breakout at the 1-hour level may transmit to the 4-hour level, if it breaks below 138.4, be cautious of an extended adjustment period.
2. Linkage reference.
- SOL, as a popular cryptocurrency in the Ethereum ecosystem, has a correlation with ETH, and attention should be paid to ETH's performance at the 1670 support level to avoid misjudgment of a single cryptocurrency;
- If Bitcoin (BTC) also breaks below 90,000, it may lead SOL to follow down, need to strengthen risk prevention.
3. Long-term perspective.
- If this pullback stabilizes above 132.7, and subsequently rebounds to break 152.8, it can be seen as the start of a new upward trend, suitable for medium to long-term layout;
- If it breaks below 132.7 and the weekly closes bearish, be wary of the market returning to a fluctuating downward range.
4. Trading mnemonic (for easy memorization)
- Hold long positions if support holds; exit short positions if resistance breaks;
- Wait for two candlesticks after a breakout, heavy positions are risky, do not take chances;
- Trend is king, don't guess the top, manage stop-loss to reduce risk.$SOL #SOL走势