Recently, Bitcoin's price has been quite resilient. In the wake of the recent sharp decline in US stocks, Bitcoin not only did not follow the drop but instead rallied against the trend. Previously, Bitcoin had generally followed the movements of US stocks, but this time, despite the decline in US stocks and Trump's criticism of Powell leading to policy uncertainties, Bitcoin remained strong, reaching a high of $88,850 this morning. This provides support for sentiment; on the other hand, US stocks continue to weaken due to the ongoing trade war and interest rate cut expectations, causing the yield on 10-year US Treasuries to rise to 4.5%.
Speaking of the trade war, the impact of tariffs themselves is not as significant anymore; the key is how much damage tariffs will inflict on the economy. The recent decline in the US dollar index is due to market concerns about this. Especially with the US Q1 GDP data being released on April 30, this data is particularly critical. If the data is good, the Federal Reserve will definitely say, 'Let's wait and see, no rush to cut rates,' which is neither good nor bad for the market. However, if the data is poor, while it may increase the probability of rate cuts, it also means that the economy may enter a recession, which would be negative news. Therefore, regardless of the data, it is not good news for risk assets.
Currently, Bitcoin at $87,700 is indeed facing little resistance until $93,000, where there is a significant amount of trapped positions. However, it is important to note that Bitcoin has risen from $75,000 to $88,000, which is quite a substantial increase. Although there is strong support below $84,000 and the chip structure is stable, in the current unclear macro environment with potential economic downturns, we still need to be cautious of the pullback that could be caused by systemic risks. Therefore, comprehensively speaking, the upside potential for Bitcoin may be limited, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term, focusing on whether the on-chain support can hold. If market sentiment suddenly worsens and funds start to panic, it’s uncertain whether the current price can hold up.
Let's take another look at the altcoin market. Recently, there has finally been some movement. Liquidity is slowly returning, and major funds are showing intent to drive prices up. The most obvious sign is that some previously severely downtrended obscure altcoins have suddenly risen collectively, starting to catch up with the leading coins. Next, we can slightly shift our focus.
Regarding on-chain activity, although our community has captured the recently popular RFC and DARK, leaving some positions has also resulted in significant losses. Currently, the major projects on-chain are still primarily focused on P, with too few large projects and too low a ceiling, leaving everyone without the motivation to persist. To attract significant liquidity, we still need to bring out a truly large project.
Overall, it's good that Bitcoin is currently moving independently, but we must remain vigilant about macro risks. Although altcoins have started to become active, we still need to be selective and not be blinded by the sudden surge of smaller coins. In this market condition, controlling positions and maintaining patience is the most important.
