#Metaplanet增持比特币

After Bitcoin surged to a high of $100,000, it entered a correction mode, leaving many investors confused and torn, as they began to speculate whether this is merely a brief pause in a bull market or if the trend has come to an end.

First, let's analyze the critical factor of Bitcoin's halving mechanism. It is well known that Bitcoin's production is halved every four years. Historical data shows that after previous halvings, the market usually sees a true price peak about 1 to 1.5 years later. Based on this timeline, the peak moment is more likely to be from the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026, and the current correction seems more like a halftime break. Looking at the magnitude of the correction, this time it has only dropped by 30%, whereas in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin experienced significant corrections of 45% and 53%, respectively. In comparison, the current correction is not considered exaggerated. Additionally, the cost line for miners is currently around $78,000. If the price does indeed drop to this level, miners will be reluctant to sell their Bitcoin due to cost considerations, which will provide a certain degree of price support, much like a natural moat.

Now, let's turn our attention to the global monetary policy environment. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates next year, and other central banks may follow suit by increasing the money supply. Bitcoin has a high correlation with the global money supply, and when the money supply increases in the market, it often drives Bitcoin prices up. Recently, gold prices have reached new highs, reflecting the demand for value-preserving assets from large funds, and as an emerging value-preserving asset, Bitcoin naturally garners attention.