#Strategy增持比特币

After Bitcoin surged to a high of $100,000, it entered a correction mode, leaving many investors confused and conflicted, as they began to speculate whether this was a brief pause in a bull market or if the market had reached its end.

First, let's analyze the key factor of Bitcoin's halving mechanism. As is well known, Bitcoin's supply is halved every four years. From historical data, after previous halvings, the market usually sees a true price peak about 1 to 1.5 years later. Based on this timeline, the end of 2025 to early 2026 is more likely to be the peak moment, while the current correction seems more like a halftime break. Comparing the magnitude of this correction, it has only decreased by 30%, whereas in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin experienced significant corrections of 45% and 53%, respectively. In contrast, the current correction is not considered exaggerated. Furthermore, the cost line for miners is currently around $78,000. If the price does drop to this level, miners, due to cost considerations, will be reluctant to sell their Bitcoin, which will create a certain level of price support, resembling a natural moat.

Next, let's turn our attention to the global monetary policy environment. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates next year, and other central banks may also follow suit by increasing the money supply. Bitcoin has a high correlation with the global money supply; when the money supply increases in the market, it often drives up the price of Bitcoin. Recently, gold prices have reached new highs, reflecting the demand for value-preserving assets by large funds. As an emerging value-preserving asset, Bitcoin will naturally attract attention.