1. Short-term volatility: If Trump continues to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, the market may anticipate 'easing expectations' early, driving up Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (similar to the market after Trump criticized the Federal Reserve in 2019). However, if the Federal Reserve insists on its independence and delays rate cuts, it may lead to a correction in risk assets.
Medium to long-term risks: If political intervention truly leads to a rebound in inflation (as Goolsbee warned), the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates again, triggering a liquidity tightening that creates systemic headwinds for high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
2. Inflation expectations and the hedging logic of cryptocurrencies
Escalating inflation: If political intervention causes U.S. inflation to spike again, Bitcoin's 'anti-inflation narrative' may regain attention and attract capital inflows. However, beware of a 'stagflation' scenario (high inflation + economic recession), where the market may prefer cash or gold and virtual currencies.
Dollar trends: Expectations of rate cuts may suppress the dollar, indirectly benefiting cryptocurrencies priced in dollars; however, if uncontrolled inflation triggers rate hikes, a strong dollar may suppress coin prices.
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Medium to short-term operational strategy
(1) Short-term trading (1 hour to 1 day)
Breakout strategy: If the price stabilizes at 88,500 USDT (key resistance), you can take a small long position, targeting 90,000~92,000 USDT.
Callback strategy: If it falls below 87,500 USDT (support level), you can add to your long position.
Take profit and stop loss: Short-term trading suggests a 1:2 profit-loss ratio, with stop loss set 1%~1.5% outside the key support/resistance.
Welcome to follow the introduction entry, join the exchange village to receive strategies.
Welcome to follow the introduction entry, join the exchange village to receive strategies.