In the current cryptocurrency market cycle, a significant trend is emerging: the market has not only reached saturation in terms of capital but also in terms of attention. Global Google Trends data clearly supports this — except for Solana's search interest hitting a new high, mainstream crypto assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin, even after ETF approvals, Bitcoin hitting new highs, and meme-driven political debates, have struggled to reach the peak search interest levels of the 2021 bull market. The decline in attention directly translates to the price end, with most major crypto assets trading below their previous cycle highs, indicating that while cryptocurrency has achieved a certain level of mainstream recognition, its function as a practical currency has not yet gained widespread acknowledgment and application.
The disintegration and attrition of market participant structure.
An in-depth analysis of changes in market participants' structure reveals why various positive narratives struggle to maintain upward momentum in the market. Once the main force of retail investors, spot traders on centralized exchanges (CEX) are experiencing significant losses. As the wealth effect of CEX fades, new user growth has stagnated, with many old users either completely exiting or turning to riskier perpetual contract trading. Meanwhile, the emergence of spot ETFs has also diverted some potential buyers, making CEX no longer the preferred entry point for investors into the cryptocurrency market.
Well-capitalized yield miners, facing reduced on-chain yield opportunities and declining risk-adjusted returns, are also beginning to shift their funds to more stable off-chain yield sources. Participants in NFT and GameFi, who once played significant roles in promoting cryptocurrency culture, are now mostly marginalized. Some briefly engaged in the memecoin craze, but with the waning interest in the Trump meme, this group has also fallen into disappointment. Even the notoriously persistent airdrop hunters have incurred losses due to the project's failure to deliver on promises, leading to frequent conflicts with project teams. Participation from various user groups is declining, and confidence is wavering, with a clear trend of retail investors exiting the market.
Market conversion stagnation, growth hitting a bottleneck.
The market faces challenges not only from user attrition but also from stagnant conversion mechanisms. Despite top CEXs serving about 400 million users (removing duplicates), only about 10% of users can convert to on-chain wallet users, and this penetration rate has seen little improvement since 2023. The traffic of mainstream exchanges has continued to decline since the peak of the 2021 bull market, and even Bitcoin's price hitting new highs has not reversed this trend, with channels for acquiring new users and converting old users remaining ineffective.
From a cognitive perspective, 92% of global respondents have heard of cryptocurrency, and 50% claim to understand it. Awareness is no longer an issue, but public interest in cryptocurrency is waning. NFT, Dogecoin, and even the Trump meme, which once attracted a large number of retail investors, are now struggling to replicate past traction, leading to a gradual flattening of retail enthusiasm.
The failure of market speculation reflects deeper issues in the OM case.
Taking the market performance of $OM as an example, its price once skyrocketed by 100 times but lacked real spot trading volume to support it. Even with carefully planned strategies such as shifting to popular RWA concepts, capital alliances, KOL promotions, and resetting token economics, it ultimately collapsed by 95% due to a lack of genuine marginal buyers. This case profoundly reflects the structural issues in the current crypto market: under the centralized exchange system, mere price speculation can no longer stimulate new market demand.
Macroeconomic impacts: The shock of Federal Reserve policies and USD liquidity.
The structural shift in buyer behavior is closely related to the macro liquidity environment. Since 2022, the Federal Reserve has initiated a significant quantitative tightening cycle, reversing the global risk asset boom brought by post-COVID-19 loose monetary policies. The Fed's balance sheet has fallen from a peak of nearly 9 trillion USD, withdrawing market liquidity and tightening financial conditions, which has curtailed the inflow of speculative funds that the cryptocurrency market relies on, structurally limiting the participation of high-risk tolerance speculators.
Potential directions for new demand: Policies, essential needs, and real assets.
In the context of traditional cryptocurrency market participant attrition and the failure of speculation, future marginal buyers may arise from areas driven by structural transformation due to policy and real demand. The normalization of stablecoin regulation is expected to usher in a new phase dominated by digital dollars. In a complex global trade environment with strengthened capital controls, stablecoins, as an efficient channel for cross-border capital flows, will play a more significant role in economic activities. In regions with unstable currencies, low financial service coverage such as Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, the practical application value of stablecoins in remittances, savings, and cross-border trade is attracting a large number of new users, becoming a new frontier in global dollarization. Furthermore, as the scale of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization expands, more users will participate in the cryptocurrency market for the purpose of acquiring real assets rather than mere speculation.
The binary differentiation and structural rebalancing of the market.
The current cryptocurrency market is at a critical stage of binary differentiation. On one hand, the speculative market driven by meme, leverage, and narratives is declining due to a lack of sustained capital inflow; on the other hand, application fields driven by policies and addressing real needs, such as stablecoins, compliant channels, and tokenized assets, although developing slowly, are demonstrating stronger vitality and sustainability. This differentiation is not a precursor to market collapse but an inevitable process of structural rebalancing in the cryptocurrency market, signaling that the industry is evolving toward a healthier and more practically valuable direction.
Market analysis: Assessment of mainstream cryptocurrency asset trends.
Today, key points for Bitcoin $BTC trends warrant close attention. During pullbacks, 87450 USD becomes an important support level. If the price holds this level, the market may continue to rise, with upper resistance levels at 88850 USD, 89850 USD, and 91250 USD; if it falls below 87450 USD, a pullback on the 1-hour timeframe will commence, with lower support levels at 86600 USD, 85700 USD, and 84720 USD.
Ethereum$ETH On the aspect, 1597 USD is a key battleground for bulls and bears. If the price can close above this level on the 2-4 hour timeframe, it will trigger a rebound, with resistance levels at 1624 USD, 1658 USD, and 1690 USD; if it fails to stabilize above 1597 USD, the market is likely to maintain a bottom consolidation or continue to decline, with support levels at 1560 USD, 1535 USD, and 1504 USD.
For BNB, 598 USD is an important support level during pullbacks. If this level is held, the market may rise, with resistance levels at 602.4 USD, 605 USD, and 608.5 USD; if it falls below 598 USD, the 1-hour level will enter a pullback, with support levels at 594.4 USD, 590.3 USD, and 587.2 USD.
For Solana, close attention should be paid to the support at 138 USD on the 2-4 hour timeframe. If the support holds, the price will continue to rise, with resistance levels at 141.8 USD, 144.5 USD, and 147.4 USD; if it falls below 138 USD, a pullback on the 2-4 hour timeframe will begin, with support levels at 135.5 USD, 132.7 USD, and 129.5 USD.
MCP concept project overview: Opportunities and hidden concerns coexist.
Recently, Web3 AI projects integrating the context protocol of the fusion model (MCP) have become market hotspots. Launched by Anthropic, MCP standardizes the interaction between external data and applications with large language models, likened to a 'USB interface' for AI applications. The market expects it to drive the development of tracks like DeFAI and GameFAI, enhancing the practicality of AI Agents and sparking a new wave of market enthusiasm.
DARK is an experimental MCP network built on Solana, operating in a trusted execution environment, and has completed its token issuance. Its first application is dedicated to automatically integrating new tools into the AIMCP server under the TEE protocol, which is currently in development. Users can join a waitlist via email. Additionally, DARK is developing a game similar to (Dark Forest), where users need to interact with AI agents in the game using DARK tokens. Currently, its market value reaches 16 million USD.
SkyAI is built on the BNB Chain and aims to create blockchain-native AI infrastructure, having successfully completed its token issuance. The project performed impressively in the presale, oversubscribing by 167 times, with 80% of tokens allocated for public presale and 20% for increasing liquidity, resulting in significant profits for early participants. Its current market value is 40 million USD, but no actual products have been launched yet.
Solix, as a DePIN network using MCP, aims to optimize internet experience. Users can earn rewards by sharing idle bandwidth, covering operations in 63 countries with an average daily data processing of 275TB. On April 14, 2025, it completed a financing of 29.5 million USD, which will be used for MCP technology development. Token issuance is not yet completed, but there are interactive opportunities.
Despite the rising popularity of the MCP concept, most related Web3 AI projects are still in early development stages, with a lack of actual applications. Historically, the AI Agent field in Web3 has faced issues such as disconnection between products and narratives, and a lack of correlation between tokens and products. Whether the MCP concept can overcome past challenges and lead AI Agents toward practicality still requires time to validate, and investors need to remain rational and cautious.
Global asset turmoil: The underlying logic.
On April 22, the U.S. asset market experienced severe fluctuations, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging 971 points, the Nasdaq falling over 2.5%, and the S&P 500 index losing the 5200-point mark. Major tech giants collectively declined, and the VIX fear index surged by 14%. Simultaneously, the U.S. dollar index fell below 98, hitting a new low in a year and a half, while gold broke through 3400 USD to set a new historical high. Bitcoin's price demonstrated resilience amid volatility, initially following the U.S. stock market's pullback before strongly rebounding, while altcoins showed relatively weak performance. Over the past 24 hours, liquidations across the network reached 261 million USD, with both bulls and bears suffering heavy losses.
The Federal Reserve's independence is challenged, leading to changes in the global asset anchoring system.
Trump has repeatedly publicly pressured Federal Reserve Chair Powell to cut interest rates and hinted at considering replacing him, raising market concerns over the Fed's political neutrality. If the Fed's monetary policy decisions are politically influenced, it will undermine global investors' trust in its professional judgment and independence, impacting the status of U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset and the credit advantage of the dollar, leading to a reevaluation of the global asset anchoring system.
Gold and Bitcoin resonance: Asset choices in a crisis of institutional trust.
The continuous rise in gold prices essentially reflects the market's declining trust in the traditional political monetary system. Amid doubts about the Federal Reserve's independence and policy stability, gold, as a store of value that does not rely on national credit and has no default risk, has once again become a safe-haven choice for investors. The synchronous rise of Bitcoin and gold stems from its decentralized nature and fixed issuance rules, making it a candidate asset for 'depoliticized store of value' when the 'human governance monetary system' is challenged, playing a dual role as 'digital gold' and 'decentralized dollar substitute' in specific market conditions.
Regulatory shifts: Opportunities and risks coexist.
Paul S. Atkins has assumed the role of Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). His advocated principle of financial market liberalization may bring about policy easing for crypto assets in terms of ETF approvals and RWA token issuance. However, this laissez-faire tendency could also lead to a lack of regulatory consistency, exacerbating uncertainty in market institutions. For the cryptocurrency industry, this presents both opportunities for compliant development and higher risks and challenges in regulatory battles, marking a more complex new phase of industry development.
