Investing goes against human nature!
ETH has dropped to the point where it seems inhuman, and no one believes in it anymore! However, ETH will recover, so don't be completely bearish on ETH.
Institutions are also large retail investors, and the current sell-off is driven by them. Even the Ethereum Foundation has been selling continuously, which is really damaging confidence!
Recently, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has dropped to 0.01766, hitting a new low since 2020. On the surface, ETH appears weak, but this may actually be a signal for recovery, and is worth paying attention to.
Firstly, historical data shows that the ETH/BTC exchange rate usually rebounds after reaching a low point. ETH is highly correlated with BTC but tends to be more volatile; when BTC rises, ETH typically rises even more. Currently, BTC has shown signs of inflow, and if BTC continues to rise, ETH may have a recovery opportunity.
Secondly, there are potential positives in the fundamentals of ETH. The Pectra upgrade in 2025 and the launch of an ETH staking ETF could boost market sentiment. Currently, the market price of ETH is below its realized price (for the first time since 2020), and the MVRV ratio is in the 'opportunity zone', indicating that ETH is undervalued and has buying potential.
Moreover, despite the ongoing sell-off, the scale of selling has decreased, and institutions like BlackRock still hold a significant amount of ETH, showing confidence in its long-term value.
Finally, market sentiment is likely to shift. As BTC leads the crypto market to recover, ETH, as the second-largest cryptocurrency, may reignite investor interest in its ecosystem (DeFi, NFTs, etc.).
Although the delay in ETH staking approval is unfavorable, if the GDP data at the end of the month is positive, a recovery in liquidity may drive ETH prices up.
Therefore, going against human nature, the current low point of ETH/BTC may be a good buying opportunity. Keep an eye on subsequent market dynamics and seize the recovery opportunity.