The recent rebound is the result of the expectation of loose macroeconomic policies, a weak dollar, and technical breakthroughs. However, the market remains constrained by policy uncertainty and the volatility of capital flows. In the future, close attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's policy path, geopolitical risks, and industry technological upgrades (such as progress in Bitcoin Layer 2) for their further impact on market sentiment. In the long term, the approaching Bitcoin halving event (April 2025) may inject new momentum into the market through supply contraction logic, but historical experience shows that its effects usually manifest with a delay of several months.