Bitcoin has rallied roughly 15% from its early‑April trough near $74,000 to trade in the mid‑$80,000 range, driven by a weaker dollar amid political pressure on the Federal Reserve, a temporary pause in U.S. tariffs, sizable “whale” accumulation, and resilient but cautious institutional flows. Technical indicators point to critical resistance around $90,000, while sentiment remains mixed as traders weigh macro risks against potential upside targets of $100,000–$150,000
Background: From Lows to Recovery
Bitcoin plunged to its weakest levels of 2025—around $74,000—on April 7, mirroring sell‑offs in risk assets amid escalating U.S.‑China trade tensions . After retesting those lows twice, BTC began its recovery in mid‑April, setting the stage for a broader rebound.
Macro Drivers and Dollar Dynamics
U.S. President Trump’s public attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell weakened the dollar, fueling safe‑haven flows into crypto; on April 21, Bitcoin jumped nearly 3% to $87,515.88 as the dollar slid to a three‑year low . That same day, BTC hit $88,384.03, up 3.88%, alongside record gold prices, underscoring gold and Bitcoin’s role as alternative stores of value amid Fed uncertainty.
Trade‑Tariff Developments
A surprise 90‑day suspension of new reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. provided further relief for risk markets. After dipping to about $76,000 mid‑week, Bitcoin climbed back above $82,000 on hopes that lower trade‑war pressures would bolster global growth.
Whale Accumulation and On‑Chain Signals
Blockchain analytics firm Santiment reports that “whales” (addresses holding 10–10,000 BTC) have added roughly 53,600 BTC since late March, now controlling nearly 68% of circulating supply—a bullish sign that large holders are positioning for higher prices.
Institutional Flows and Derivative Sentiment
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $15.85 million between April 14–17, the smallest weekly uptake in 2025 but still positive amid uncertainty . However, BTC futures open interest fell by 2%, and put demand in options markets ticked up, indicating traders are booking profits even as they maintain some bullish exposure .
Technical Analysis
Several analysts highlight three layers of resistance: a descending trendline that capped rallies in March, the 200‑day simple and exponential moving averages, and the psychological ceiling around $90,000–$91,000. Bloomberg notes that BTC’s recent climb to its highest since early April comes on the back of dollar weakness, setting up a potential retest of $92,000 if these barriers give way.
Market Sentiment and Resilience
Oppenheimer strategists observe that Bitcoin’s drawdown this cycle—despite dipping 27% from its January peak—has been less severe than past corrections, reflecting growing maturity and resilience in the asset class.
Outlook and Next Targets
Bullish voices remain: Fundstrat’s Tom Lee projects a 2025 price well above $150,000, while others see $137,000 as a realistic intermediate goal . Conversely, persistent macro risks—ranging from Fed policy shifts to renewed tariff threats—could cap further gains, making the coming weeks critical for confirming whether Bitcoin will break decisively above $90,000 or consolidate in the $85,000–$88,000 range.
Overall, the current rebound reflects a mix of macro tailwinds, large‑holder conviction, and institutional interest—yet near‑term momentum hinges on broader market confidence and resolution of key resistance levels.
