International trade continues to be at the center of geopolitical turbulence. Against the backdrop of reports about possible tariff relief from the U.S. for countries willing to cut trade with China, Beijing issued a sharp warning, promising 'decisive and reciprocal' countermeasures in case its interests are undermined. The Chinese Foreign Ministry and Ministry of Commerce urged the global community to reject 'unilateral intimidation' from Washington — the hint is more than transparent.
Particular attention in this new phase of the trade war is drawn to Vietnam, which finds itself between two economic giants. Washington threatened to impose 46% tariffs, which became a serious signal for the country's export-dependent economy, one-third of whose GDP comes from supplies to the U.S. Vietnam has rapidly intensified negotiations with the American side, offering to increase purchases of Boeing aircraft, liquefied natural gas, and even discussing contracts for Lockheed Martin military aircraft. Against this backdrop, the approval for Starlink operations and deals with the Trump Organization look like additional gestures of loyalty. However, Beijing is not staying on the sidelines either — during his visit to Vietnam, Xi Jinping assured Hanoi of the openness of the Chinese market and urged not to succumb to pressure. For Vietnam, this choice is becoming not only economic but also strategic — maintaining neutrality in the trade confrontation is becoming increasingly difficult.
Japan and South Korea have also come under the scrutiny of American tariffs: 24–25% on cars and key export goods, with an overall 10% tariff covering virtually all sectors. Tokyo has offered the U.S. an increase in imports of soybeans, meat, and rice, as well as a revision of technical safety requirements for cars. However, Japanese officials are skeptical about the chances of a quick deal. South Korea, for its part, is betting on strategic purchases — from LNG to military shipbuilding — and is trying to mitigate the damage caused by the decline in exports to the U.S. At the same time, identified cases of relabeling Chinese goods as Korean only exacerbate distrust from Washington.
India is using the pause in American tariff actions as an opportunity to strengthen relations with Washington. Today, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance arrived in Delhi — the visit coincided with a critical moment when Washington is ramping up pressure on key partners of China. Vance will negotiate with Prime Minister Narendra Modi about the prospects of concluding a large bilateral trade deal. India has already reduced tariffs on some American goods, and Delhi is expected to continue concessions despite active resistance from farmers' unions concerned about their future. The U.S. and India have stated their intention to increase bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030, but against the backdrop of new conditions from Washington — this growth is likely to be accompanied by political concessions and a reorientation of trade at the expense of China.
Thus, Trump's initiative to use tariffs as a tool of geopolitical pressure has reached a new level. Now it is not only about the bilateral trade imbalance but also about an attempt to reformat global supply chains focusing on containing China. The proposal for tariff exemptions to countries willing to limit economic relations with Beijing turns U.S. trade policy into a tool of strategic coercion. China, in turn, has made it clear that it will respond not only symmetrically but also politically. The world seems to be entering a new era of trade confrontation, where each deal is an element of a larger geopolitical game, and neutrality is becoming an increasingly expensive and unstable commodity.