• Trump hinted that another cryptocurrency will be issued at the end of the month. Last time, $Trump and MELANIA surged to a high of 109,588 before starting two months of decline. What will happen to the market trend this time with the new token launch?

  • The tariff issues between China and the U.S. remain unresolved, gold has surged to a historic high, and U.S. 20-year Treasury bonds have returned to previous lows.

  • The market capitalization of stablecoins (red line: accumulated market cap of stablecoins) continues to increase, but the inflow rate (green part) is gradually slowing down, indicating that while market funds have not exited, there is a lack of new momentum to attract new investments.

  • Large holders holding more than 10,000 BTC have started to gradually enter the buying accumulation stage, and Bitfinex's green leaf lending rates have also begun to rise. However, the gradual buying by large holders will not immediately impact market trends, but will form slowly.

  • The left chart shows options ∆25 Skew Constant Maturities returning from -15 to the 0 value range, while the right chart shows options IV values also returning from highs to around 50, indicating that market sentiment is gradually stabilizing from extreme panic and bearishness. However, the current direction remains unclear.

  • Conclusion

Favorable factors for the market: Large holders with over 10,000 BTC have started buying, green leaf lending rates are starting to rise, stablecoin market capitalization remains steady.

Adverse factors for the market: Unclear tariff policies, Fed Chair Powell's firm stance against interest rate cuts, potential issues with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, U.S. GDP recession.

Difficult point to judge: Trump is about to issue a new coin.

Based on the above market conditions, Belle reminds.

  1. In the short term, attention can be focused on whether Trump's new coin issuance at the end of the month will reignite market enthusiasm or open up a downward trend again.

  2. In the medium term, one can look at the elimination of tariff instability in 2 to 3 months and the accumulation of chips by large holders to see if the market will be driven.

  3. In the long term, we still need to watch the overall U.S. economic data and whether the Fed will turn to QE (Quantitative Easing). This would lead to more funds entering the market.