Recently, the US dollar index has fallen below a key support level since 2022, losing the 100 integer mark that has held for more than two years. Although there is limited attention to this in the cryptocurrency circle, this signal has significant reference value for the medium to long-term trend. Historical experience shows that a sharp decline in the US dollar index is a rare occurrence, and this new low may indicate that the market has already priced in expectations for interest rate cuts—meaning that market prices have fully reflected the likelihood of future rate cuts, reflecting the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments based on the current economic situation.

This change releases a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market. As a typical risk asset, cryptocurrencies have a negative correlation with the US dollar: when the dollar weakens, market funds seek higher-yield targets, and the increase in risk appetite promotes liquidity spillover, bringing incremental funds to the cryptocurrency market.

Looking ahead to the medium-term performance of the cryptocurrency market, expectations for interest rate cuts around June are likely to act as a catalyst for market movements, with Bitcoin potentially hitting the $100,000 mark, and altcoins also expected to experience a phase of upward momentum.

However, it should be noted that the explosive growth of altcoins currently is difficult to replicate the past 10-fold surge, often showing characteristics of 3-5 times impulse rises followed by pullbacks. It is recommended that those without bottom positions seize the opportunity to break even and reasonably control their expectations. It should be clear that the above analysis pertains to medium-term trend analysis; if a short-term pullback occurs, it may present a good opportunity for positioning.