In 2025, the trade relationship between China and the United States continues to experience turbulence amidst tariff barriers and technological blockades. The comprehensive tariff rate on Chinese goods in the U.S. has climbed to 245%, affecting strategic industries such as semiconductors and new energy vehicles, while China is building a defensive system through rare earth export controls, WTO lawsuits, and reciprocal tariffs (up to 125%). This game, which began in 2018, has evolved from a simple trade imbalance into a competition for dominance over global industrial chains.

The chain reaction of the tariff war is reshaping the world economic landscape. American consumers are under pressure from skyrocketing prices of electronic products, with the CPI surpassing 7% in the first quarter of 2025, while Chinese exporting companies are accelerating their shift to markets in ASEAN, the Middle East, and others, with exports to "Belt and Road" countries growing by 9.6% from January to February. This trade reconstruction of "de-Americanization" is expected to shrink global trade volume by 0.2%, but it has also spurred the resilience upgrade of regional supply chains—Mexico's exports to the U.S. grew by 18%, and Vietnam absorbed 23% of China's transferred production capacity.

China's "dual circulation" strategy has become key to breaking the deadlock. In 2024, domestic demand contributed 70% to economic growth, the self-sufficiency rate of semiconductors rose to 15%, and rare earth refining technology monopolized 90% of the global market. This enhancement of endogenous momentum allows China to maintain a 4.8% economic growth rate despite a 14% decline in trade volume with the U.S. In contrast, the $3.2 trillion manufacturing reshoring plan in the U.S. has only resulted in a 0.3 percentage point increase in GDP share, while TSMC's Arizona factory startup has been postponed to 2028, exposing the conflict between policy and market laws.

In the paradox of technological decoupling and climate cooperation, both sides exhibit subtle strategic flexibility. The U.S. has exempted tariffs on 20 categories of goods such as mobile phones and computers, while China has opened its carbon neutrality market to American companies through the China International Import Expo. This situation of "fighting without breaking" implies potential cooperation space in areas such as digital yuan settlement and green technology standards. As pointed out in a WTO report, if China and the U.S. reach a consensus on rules in areas like clean energy and AI ethics, global trade growth could increase by 1.2 percentage points.

This war without gunpowder is essentially a clash of two development models. While the U.S. tries to reconstruct the industrial chain with tariffs, China is cultivating new advantages through institutional opening. The future key to victory may not lie in the numerical games of tariff rates, but in who can first establish global rule-making power in fields such as the digital economy and biotechnology.