On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund is expected to cut its global growth outlook. "Our new growth projections will include a significant decline in prices, but not a recession," said Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Thursday. She added, "We will also see an increase in the inflation forecast for several countries. We will warn that high and prolonged uncertainty increases the risk of financial market pressures."

The IMF announcement, delivered a few blocks from the White House, opens a week full of reports that will test the impact of tariffs on global trade. Finance chiefs from the Group of 20 are gathering in Washington at the same time. Georgieva urged them to strive for "a more resilient world economy, not fragmentation," calling the discussions "an important forum for dialogue at a critical time."

One event that could significantly influence the market.