The market is like a battlefield. Can 4.21 ETH break the deadlock today?
Latest News
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech hinted that the pace of interest rate hikes may slow down, leading to a warming of macro market sentiment. Bitcoin once approached the $30,000 mark, driving ETH to rebound.
Key Levels Determine Fate
From the 1-hour candlestick analysis
In the morning session, the price first retested the strong support at $1586 and then, stimulated by whales buying the dip and positive news from Optimism, surged straight up to $1641.94, with a daily fluctuation of 3.5%.
However, the $1640-$1650 range, being a previous area of concentrated trading, has a large number of trapped positions, putting significant pressure on the price. After multiple unsuccessful tests, it retreated to around $1620 to oscillate.
Core Logic Breakdown
Bullish Bottom Line: $1586 not only serves as a technical double-bottom support but also coincides highly with the whale's cost zone. If the price retests this position again, the main force is likely to defend it.
Bearish Vulnerability: Above $1640, trapped positions are accumulating. If it cannot break through with volume, short-term profit-taking and previous position liquidation pressure will create a double blow.
Variable Factors: Whether Bitcoin can hold above $29,500 directly affects ETH sentiment. If BTC breaks strongly, ETH may take the opportunity to challenge the $1670-$1700 resistance zone.
Additionally, while whales increasing their holdings boost confidence, their average cost is around $1600-$1620. If the price falls below this range, it may trigger programmed stop-losses, resulting in a chain reaction of declines.
Personally, I believe ETH is likely to “rise first and then fall” today, with the key being whether it can hold above $1640 during the US trading session.
Trading Strategy: Prioritize stability, avoid chasing
Aggressive Traders: Try a small long position near the current price of $1620 with a stop loss at $1600 and a target of $1640-$1650. If it breaks through $1650 with volume, add to the position and aim for $1670.
Conservative Traders: Wait for a retest of the $1586-$1600 area to build positions in batches. Cut losses decisively if it falls below $1570.
Contract Traders: Avoid opening positions in the $1640-$1586 range. After breaking out in either direction, follow the trend. Keep leverage within 5x.
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