In the past week (2025w15), after BTC stood above the 30 line, it began to accurately consolidate. The fluctuation range is approximately between 84k-85k, and if widened, it is 83k-86k. The week opened at 83.8k, reached a high of 86.5k, a low of 83k, and closed at 85.2k on Saturday, with an amplitude of about 4%.
Bitcoin has plummeted suddenly; where will it retrace to?
Bitcoin rebounded from 74,000 to 86,000; a pullback is very normal, and a pullback to 82,000 is actually not a problem. Just now, Bitcoin dropped suddenly, and many fans were scared to death, but if you look closely, it only dropped by 1%. Currently, strong support is around 83,000 and 81,500; this is an ideal position for accumulating on the pullback.
When will Bitcoin surge?
The big market for Bitcoin depends on significant changes in liquidity; an increase in liquidity requires interest rate cuts. Additionally, macro fundamentals need to address tariff issues.
A sign of an approaching storm?
Bitcoin has emerged from a nearly six-month downtrend, with reduced volatility and a gradually rising bottom. After effectively rebounding from 75,000 points, the 1-hour chart shows that the pullback bottom is gradually rising to 79,000, 81,000, and 83,000 points, indicating an overall upward breakout trend. However, it is currently facing strong resistance at 86,000 points, with multiple failed attempts to break through, and still needs to consolidate at the bottom. The market is cycling between convergence and explosion, and a decrease in volatility may indicate the calm before the storm.
The best script for the future market.
Many people's long position stop losses and those who set STOP ORDERS will place short orders in the demand area, leading to ample liquidity in that region. Without affecting the overall structure, slight touches on the demand area can mislead aggressive traders into believing that the upward trend line has broken, causing them to short as they think the converging triangle pattern has collapsed, thus increasing liquidity.
As shown in the figure, when many traders turn bearish after a breakthrough fails, it will create enough momentum to help break through the resistance level of 86k.
Bitcoin's price trend is stable, consolidating here, which is beneficial for the rotation of altcoins. Altcoins are starting a mini bull market in turn.
The biggest gainers in this wave of market are low market cap altcoins and some coins that Binance voted to delist:
(1) Low market cap altcoins (market cap below 30 million):
Low market cap MEME coins worth a few million, such as VOXEL, NKN, MAGIC, GMT.
(2) Some coins delisted by Binance voting.
Due to these coins encountering panic selling during the voting process, they have all experienced significant declines. However, Binance has not announced a delisting list in the past two days, so they are now seeing a bottom rebound, and the rebound is also quite significant. But remember, just be a scumbag; do not have a big mindset. Think about it: when the delisted coin sector rebounds, at the moment of selling the coins, if you hold onto it, who will you sell it to?
This localized market situation targeting low market cap coins and Binance monitored tokens gives a 'bull return' signal to the market. I think there are two key points driving the next bull market:
1. This is a common topic about American projects, starting with SOL and TON, driving on-chain activity and subsequently leading the entire altcoin sector.
2. Ethereum and Litecoin, along with DOGE. Ethereum and Litecoin lead the altcoins, while DOGE drives the old MEME mainstream coins. The rise of mainstream VC coins cannot be separated from Ethereum's strength. The recent weakness of Ethereum has led to poor performance of mainstream VCs. I believe Litecoin still has competitiveness because it uses a POW mechanism, has a high degree of decentralization, is persistently secure, and after a long washout, there is potential for ETF speculation.
When trading coins, you must choose a method that suits you. Don't rush to short when you see a long-dormant token suddenly spike up 30% in one shot. When the contract volume surges and then spikes up by 80% or 100%, it takes away the shorts. Although historically, most tokens will be capped back down later, it's still essential to pay attention to risks and avoid becoming an ATM for market makers.
People who like short-term trading should not trade mainstream coins because the time cost is too high. If you want to invest in stable coins that are not easily reduced to zero in a bear market, regularly investing in mainstream and altcoins is the best choice.
