Bitcoin on Track for $138K in 90 Days, Says New Macro Model
Network economist Timothy Peterson’s latest model projects Bitcoin climbing into a $75,000–$138,000 range within three months, driven by historically strong BTC performance following periods of very high yield and a weakening U.S. dollar.
His analysis of 38 past episodes—when the U.S. High Yield Index topped 8%—shows Bitcoin rose 71% of the time over the next 90 days, with a median gain of 31%. Today’s dollar index sits below 100—its weakest level in three years—creating ideal conditions for a renewed negative BTC–USD correlation once real yields begin to fall and liquidity returns.
Key risks include renewed selling pressure from token unlocks or a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, any of which could delay or temper the anticipated rally. A decisive break below real‑yield highs and a Fed pivot toward rate cuts by mid‑2025 would greatly increase the odds of Bitcoin reaching the upper end of Peterson’s forecast.