Ethereum's scalability is under threat as the rapid expansion of Layer 2 (L2) networks risks pushing the blockchain to its limits, despite upcoming upgrades.

## Key Takeaways

- Ethereum’s current capacity of three blobs per block is insufficient for growing L2 demand.

- The Pectra upgrade (May 7, 2025) will double blob capacity to six per block—but simulations suggest this may still fall short.

- A tenfold surge in L2 transactions could drive fees up to $0.64 per transaction, making Ethereum less competitive.

- Experts estimate 33 blobs per block are needed to keep costs below $0.02, ensuring long-term viability.

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## Ethereum’s Race Against Time

Since EIP-4844 introduced blob storage, Ethereum has relied on this cost-efficient method to support L2 networks like Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism. These solutions help offload transactions from the mainnet while maintaining security.

However, with just three blobs per block, Ethereum is already struggling to keep up. The Pectra upgrade will increase this to six—but analysts warn this may not be enough.

### The Fee Crisis Looming

- If L2 transactions grow 10x, fees could spike to $0.64, eroding Ethereum’s cost advantage.

- Future upgrades like PeerDAS and Fusaka may help, but Ethereum needs at least 33 blobs per block to sustain low fees.

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## Base: A Case Study in L2 Growth

Coinbase’s Base network highlights both the promise and peril of Ethereum’s L2 strategy:

- $106M+ in fees generated since launch.

- 155M+ addresses onboarded.

- $4.5M paid in blob fees to Ethereum.

- 93 TPS (transactions per second) over six months.

With $10B+ in Total Value Locked (TVL), Base strengthens Ethereum’s ecosystem—but its success also strains the network.

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## The Road Ahead: Can Ethereum Keep Up?

If Ethereum fails to scale blob capacity quickly, its L2 strategy could backfire:

- Higher fees may drive users to alternative chains.

- Slower adoption if costs remain unpredictable.

### Final Thoughts

Ethereum’s future as the leading smart contract platform hinges on solving scalability before congestion becomes irreversible.

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