BASIC DECISION MODEL FOR CRYPTO FORECAST
1. Historical Price
→ If the current price is close to a known support (previous low)
Then: Likely increase.
→ If the price is close to a known resistance (previous high)
Then: Likely decrease.
2. Trading Volume
→ If the volume increases along with the price rise
Then: Strong upward trend.
→ If the volume decreases while the price rises
Then: Weak trend, risk of decline.
3. Volatility
→ If volatility has been very low for days
Then: Likely price explosion (up or down).
→ If volatility is very high
Then: Unstable market, high risk — wait for definition.
4. Technical Indicators
→ RSI below 30 = Oversold
Then: Buying opportunity.
→ RSI above 70 = Overbought
Then: Sell signal.
→ Short moving average crossing above the long one (e.g., MA 20 > MA 50)
Then: Bullish signal.
→ Short moving average crossing below the long one
Then: Bearish signal.
5. External Events
→ If there is strong positive news (halving, ETF, adoption by a large company)
Then: Likely increase.
→ If there is strong negative news (regulation, hack, ban)
Then: Likely decrease.
Simplified Visual Flow
1. Current price near support?
↳ Yes → Buy.
↳ No → Next variable.
2. Volume increasing with price?
↳ Yes → Confirms increase.
↳ No → Caution, may be false movement.
3. Low volatility?
↳ Yes → Likely explosion. Wait.
↳ No → Unstable market, caution.
4. RSI below 30?
↳ Yes → Buy.
↳ RSI above 70?
↳ Yes → Sell.
5. Positive external events?
↳ Yes → Confirms purchase.
↳ Negative events?
↳ Yes → Avoid buying or sell.
