Recently, during a critical moment of China's hard confrontation with the U.S. tariff war, there were widespread claims online that Vietnam had kneeled, and even discussions about Vietnam joining the U.S. to contain China. Some of this was Trump's wordplay, and some was Vietnam's bamboo diplomacy tricks.
What is circulating online is that Vietnam has lowered tariffs on American imports to 0, which is what Trump said. However, everyone has overlooked that Vietnam expressed mutual tariff reductions with the U.S. to 0. Vietnam has a significant trade surplus with the U.S.; mutual reductions to 0 would be more beneficial for Vietnam, right? This is also the fundamental reason the U.S. has never agreed to this. If it really happens, wouldn't Vietnam's crab business be booming even more?
A few days ago, the top leader visited three Southeast Asian countries, with Vietnam as the first stop, and three main outcomes were achieved.
1. Su Lin agreed to allow staff from the Vietnamese Ministry of Foreign Affairs to come to China for training.
Training for officials is very sensitive. If officials from China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs have to go to the U.S. for training, how can they be tough against the U.S.? They would inevitably speak on behalf of the Americans. Similarly, if staff from Vietnam's Ministry of Foreign Affairs come to China for training, it must be to build good relations with China.
2. Vietnam promotes transportation integration with our country.
Specifically, it is about constructing the 'Lao Cai-Hanoi-Haiphong' railway, the 'Dong Dang-Hanoi' railway, and the 'Mong Cai-Ha Long-Haiphong' railway in Vietnam. All three lines will adopt the same standard gauge as China, and these lines will be interconnected with the lines within China, forming an integrated railway network.
If this is built, it will be more convenient for Chinese upstream products to enter Vietnamese industrial parks, saving the cost of changing vehicles at the border, allowing for direct access. Trade will only become tighter; how can there still be a joint effort with the Americans to contain China?
This matter was actually agreed upon last year when Su Lin visited China, and this time it is to confirm specific implementation. Previously, Vietnam was always unwilling to use the same standard gauge as China, mainly because China had once beaten them, and they were afraid that in the future, tanks could roll down south on the tracks. But now, for the sake of the economy, they can't afford to care so much.
3. Vietnam agrees to allow Chinese large aircraft to enter Vietnam.
On April 16, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh issued Ordinance No. 89, agreeing to amend the civil aviation aircraft access mechanism. After the amendment, passenger aircraft certified by the Civil Aviation Administration of China can also enter Vietnam. Before this, civil aviation aircraft wishing to enter the Vietnamese market had to obtain certification from the U.S., the EU, or Vietnamese civil aviation authorities.
In this way, Vietnam will purchase China's C919 and C909 passenger aircraft. If Vietnam really kneels to the U.S., they should actively buy a large number of Boeing planes at this time, rather than opening a door for Chinese planes. This is clearly a way to poke the Americans in the eye. From government officials to railway integration to the introduction of Chinese passenger planes, it all shows that Vietnam is not as weak as claimed online.
As the tariff war has progressed to this point, both sides will no longer continue to pull on tariffs, but will start looking for allies externally, seeing whose influence is greater. This matter will continue for a long time, but I believe the most dangerous time has already passed.
