Summary: Will the rise of quantum computing pose a threat to the cryptographic security of Bitcoin? A global challenge to break Bitcoin with quantum computing has once again brought this topic to the forefront.
Recently, the quantum computing research organization Project Eleven launched a global challenge called the Q-Day Prize, offering a reward of 1 Bitcoin (approximately $85,000) to the first team or individual who can run Shor's algorithm on quantum hardware and break elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) by April 5, 2026.
This competition started on April 16, 2025, aiming to promote a realistic risk assessment of quantum computing on the security of cryptocurrencies, especially concerning the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) used by Bitcoin.
Real Considerations of Quantum Threats
According to data from Project Eleven, over 10 million Bitcoin addresses have exposed public keys. If quantum computing technology advances rapidly, approximately 6.2 million Bitcoins (worth nearly $500 billion) may face risks.
The core goal of this challenge is to encourage practical verification rather than staying purely theoretical. Participants must rely entirely on quantum computers to run Shor's algorithm, and even if they only crack part of the key's bits, it can prove the feasibility of fully breaking it when future technology matures. It is worth noting that no ECC keys have yet been broken by quantum computing in reality.
Rapid Progress in Quantum Computing
The launch of this challenge coincides with a critical breakthrough in the quantum field. For example, Google's 'Willow' quantum chip recently completed a task in just 5 minutes that would take a traditional supercomputer 10^10 billion years to solve. Giants like IBM, Amazon, and Microsoft are also making continuous breakthroughs in quantum hardware and providing access to computing power through cloud services.
Another major participant, PsiQuantum, raised $750 million in early 2025 and claimed to have made progress in photon chip design and improved quantum algorithm technologies like Shor.
Although the industry generally believes that the quantum risk to Bitcoin is not imminent, Project Eleven aims to quantify the timeline of this threat through experimentation.
Controversies and Disagreements in Quantum Computing
There has long been controversy and disagreement in the industry about the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin. In November 2024, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) even warned that some algorithms with weak quantum resistance may become ineffective within 5 years.
In early 2025, CryptoQuant listed the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin as a potential risk, pointing out that special attention should be paid to mining and private key security.
However, some people are optimistic. For example, X user 'Bitcoin Isaiah' calls for an urgent upgrade of cryptographic protocols, while Blockstream CEO Adam Back believes that Bitcoin's existing encryption mechanisms can at least safely support until 2035.
Conclusion:
The advancement of quantum computing is both a leap in technology and a challenge to the cryptographic world. This experiment by Project Eleven is not just about the bounty of 1 Bitcoin but also a stress test of the security baseline of blockchain. Regardless of the outcome, it reminds us that technology is always evolving, and security needs to be proactive.
Finally, do you think Bitcoin can effectively break quantum encryption algorithms? If quantum computing can indeed crack ECC, how should the cryptocurrency sector respond? See you in the comments!
