Powell's Speech Tonight Before Jackson Hole Sees Small Fluctuations in Bitcoin and Ethereum
Ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at 8 PM tonight in Jackson Hole, BTC and ETH prices have shown slight fluctuations.
As of now, the price of BTC has dropped to $112,873 (a 0.5% decrease in the last 24 hours), while ETH is also at $4,316 (a 0.6% drop in the last hour). This phenomenon is mainly due to investors' cautious attitude ahead of significant policy signals.
The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, but recent inflation data has exceeded expectations, leading some members to question the timing of a rate cut. The current probability forecast for a rate cut in September has dropped from previous highs to around 71.3%.
At the same time, the market views Powell's speech as a key barometer for the September interest rate decision. If he releases dovish signals, it may push Bitcoin towards $130,000; however, if the stance is more hawkish, it could trigger market risk aversion, and BTC may test the support level of $105,000.
It has been revealed that Powell's speech will focus on "Economic Outlook and Framework Assessment," discussing his views on the macroeconomy and the Federal Reserve's long-term policy objectives. Given that most of the meeting's content is not publicly disclosed, the market will also closely watch media interviews with five Federal Reserve officials, as these interviews tend to reveal policy directions more than academic discussions.
Most central bank governors around the world are expected to support Powell in response to the political pressure he faces for refusing to cut rates. European Central Bank President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will also participate in a panel discussion on "Policy Implications of Labor Market Transformation" on Sunday, and their statements may also impact the market.
In terms of capital flows, despite significant outflows from BTC and ETH ETFs in the past week, on-chain data shows that long-term investors are still accumulating Bitcoin, with holdings exceeding 15 million coins. The network hash rate of BTC has reached a peak of 930 EH/s, indicating that the market fundamentals remain healthy.
In summary, Powell's speech at Jackson Hole may become a key catalyst for short-term market trends, especially during this sensitive period of a weak labor market.
However, there is no need for excessive panic. Although market fluctuations may intensify in the short term, the long-term fundamentals of Bitcoin remain solid.
