1. Short-term Price Stimulus: Liquidity Injection and Market Sentiment Boost

  1. Forecast of Capital Inflow Scale
    J.P. Morgan research indicates that if the XRP spot ETF is approved, it is expected to attract an influx of $3 billion to $8 billion, equivalent to 2%-5% of the current circulating market cap of XRP. Based on the market cap growth trend following the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, XRP's price may rise by 15%-25% in the short term, with target prices potentially breaking $2.8-$3.2.

  2. Market Sentiment Catalytic Effect
    Brazil has taken the lead in approving the world's first XRP spot ETF (issued by Hashdex). After the announcement, XRP's price rose by 7.1% in a single day, with market capitalization recovering to $156 billion. If the U.S. SEC follows suit, it could trigger stronger FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment, pushing the price past key resistance levels.

2. Mid-term Price Support: Institutional Holdings and Ecosystem Expansion

  1. Increase in Institutional Holdings
    Currently, institutions like Grayscale and Bitwise have applied for the XRP ETF. If approved, it will attract traditional financial institutions (e.g., pension funds, hedge funds) to allocate, with institutional holdings expected to rise from 12% to over 20%. Based on the experience of Bitcoin ETFs, institutional funds will significantly reduce market volatility, creating a price 'stability cushion.'

  2. Acceleration of Cross-Border Payment Ecosystem Implementation
    ETF approval will strengthen XRP's positioning as a 'compliant cross-border settlement tool.' Ripple's partnership with Spain's BBVA bank has already covered 20% of cross-border remittance business in the Eurozone, with transaction speeds in pilot programs in the Middle East reaching 3 seconds per transaction. Once institutional funds enter, the expansion of ecosystem applications may drive XRP's annual trading volume growth by over 300%.

3. Long-term Value Reconstruction: Regulatory Endorsement and Competitive Landscape

  1. Elimination of Regulatory Risk Premium
    The gradual acceptance of XRP ETF applications by the SEC (such as those from 21Shares and Grayscale) indicates a shift in regulatory attitude. Coupled with the pro-crypto policies of the Trump administration, the 'non-security' status of XRP will be further solidified. In the long run, the elimination of legal risk premium may raise XRP's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) from the current 18 times to 25 times (comparable to traditional payment giants).

  2. Competitive Landscape of Cryptocurrency ETFs
    Currently, applications for Solana and Litecoin ETFs are progressing simultaneously, but XRP, with its $146.5 billion market capitalization and adoption rate on the banking side, could become the third mainstream cryptocurrency approved after Bitcoin and Ethereum. If approved ahead of others, XRP's market share could increase from 5.3% to over 7%, creating a 'Matthew Effect.'

4. Potential Risks and Market Games

  1. Short-term Selling Pressure Risk
    Some early investors may take profits after the ETF approval. On-chain data shows that around 1,600-1,800 whale addresses (holding more than 100,000 XRP) currently have an average cost of $1.20. If the price breaks above $3, it could trigger a sell-off of around 20 million XRP.

  2. Approval Process Uncertainty
    Although the SEC has accepted Grayscale and 21Shares' 19b-4 applications, final approval requires a 240-day review period, and the lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC is still not fully resolved. If not approved before Q3 2025, the price may pull back to the support zone of $2.0-2.3.

5. Summary and Strategic Recommendations

  • Price Impact Pathways
    Short-term (within 1 month after approval): Surge to $3.0-3.5; Mid-term (6-12 months): Stabilize at $3.5 based on ecosystem expansion, moving towards $4.0; Long-term (over 1 year): If cross-border payment market share exceeds 30%, may challenge $5.0.

  • Investor Strategies

    • Spot Holders: Gradually accumulate in the $2.0-2.5 range, with a stop loss set at $1.8;

    • Contract Traders: Lightly pursue long positions after breaking $2.8, aiming for $3.2, with leverage not exceeding 5 times;

    • Institutional Investors: Participate through ETF shares to avoid custody risks associated with direct holdings.